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Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-10-10 16:53:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 10 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 101453 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 1500 UTC TUE OCT 10 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 38.3W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 38.3W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 38.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.9N 37.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.2N 37.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.8N 36.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 36.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.2N 33.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 33.4N 28.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 36.0N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 38.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-10 10:36:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Oct 2017 08:36:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Oct 2017 08:36:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-10-10 10:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100831 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017 Although the intensity of Ophelia's deep convection has decreased during the past several hours, the cloud pattern has improved and become more symmetric with banding features now better established around the center. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from SAB and the latest satellite consensus estimate from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The recent decrease in convection could be associated with some dry air that has wrapped into the circulation, as seen in total precipitable water imagery. The other environmental conditions appear generally conducive for strengthening with wind shear values expected to decrease to near 10 kt during the next couple of days with SSTs remaining marginally warm around 26.5 to 27 deg C. These conditions combined with an unstable atmosphere should allow Ophelia to strengthen, and the NHC forecast follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models and brings the cyclone to hurricane strength in 24 to 36 hours. Although the official forecast shows slight weakening by the end of the period due to an increase in shear and cooler waters, the latest guidance suggests that the weakening could be less than currently forecast. Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia has made a turn to the southeast, as expected. A continued slow southeast motion is forecast during the next 36 to 48 hours as mid-level ridging builds to the north and west of the storm. After that time, a turn to the northeast or east-northeast at a progressively faster pace is expected as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches Ophelia. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. This prediction lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 31.9N 38.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 31.7N 38.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 30.8N 37.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 30.2N 37.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 30.0N 36.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 31.0N 35.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 33.0N 30.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 35.5N 23.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-10 10:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 10 the center of Ophelia was located near 31.9, -38.8 with movement SE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Public Advisory Number 5
2017-10-10 10:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 100831 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017 ...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 38.8W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 38.8 West. Ophelia is moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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