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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 13
2017-10-12 10:38:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120838 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0900 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 35.6W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 35.6W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 35.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.7N 35.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.3N 34.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.2N 32.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.7N 28.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 38.5N 20.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 180SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 49.0N 13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 59.0N 7.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 35.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-12 04:44:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Oct 2017 02:44:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Oct 2017 03:25:12 GMT
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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2017-10-12 04:38:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 120237 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0300 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-12 04:37:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OPHELIA STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 11 the center of Ophelia was located near 30.0, -35.7 with movement NE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 12
2017-10-12 04:37:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120237 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017 ...OPHELIA STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 35.7W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the eastern Azores should monitor the progress of Ophelia. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 35.7 West. Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). This general motion is expected on Thursday, followed by faster motion toward the east-northeast or northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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