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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-10-11 22:31:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 11 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 112030 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 2100 UTC WED OCT 11 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 5(26) X(26) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-11 16:49:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Oct 2017 14:49:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Oct 2017 15:25:41 GMT
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ophelia
Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-10-11 16:40:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 111439 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017 If I only had conventional satellite imagery, I would definitely estimate that Ophelia was a hurricane. The cyclone has a ragged eye surrounded by deep convection and cyclonically curved bands. Furthermore, Dvorak intensity estimates, both subjective and objective, from all agencies are T4.0 plus. However, several ASCAT passes during the past day or so indicate that the winds have been lower than the winds one could assign the cyclone by using Dvorak. Once again this morning, a pair of ASCAT passes showed winds of less than 45 kt, but I am assuming that the ASCAT can not resolve the sharp wind gradient typically associated with an eyewall, and earlier SSMIS data indicated that one is present. Since we do not have a hurricane hunter plane to give us exact measurements, we need to compromise between the very valuable satellite-based estimates, and the initial intensity is set at 60 kt in this advisory. Although the ocean is not too warm, the shear is low and the upper-troposphere is cool. These factors should provide some low-octane fuel favoring slight strengthening, and Ophelia is still expected to become a hurricane at any time within the next 12 hours. Extratropical transition is likely to start between day 3 and day 4, and Ophelia is anticipated to remain a strong cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. Ophelia is moving slowly toward the east at 3 kt, embedded within light steering currents, and little motion is expected today. A mid-level trough is forecast to amplify west of Ophelia, and this pattern will provide a stronger southwesterly steering flow which eventually force the cyclone to move toward the northeast with increasing forward speed. Most of the track models agree with this solution increasing the confidence in the track forecast. The NHC forecast follows very closely the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA which has been very skillful this season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 30.0N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 29.9N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 30.1N 35.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 30.8N 34.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 31.5N 33.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 34.0N 26.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 40.0N 17.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1200Z 51.5N 12.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-11 16:35:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OPHELIA LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE ON SATELLITE BUT IT IS NOT ONE QUITE YET... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 11 the center of Ophelia was located near 30.0, -36.5 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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ophelia
Tropical Storm Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2017-10-11 16:35:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 11 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 111435 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 1500 UTC WED OCT 11 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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