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Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-29 10:42:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HILARY... ...EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 the center of Irwin was located near 14.9, -124.9 with movement NW at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 28
2017-07-29 10:42:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 290842 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 ...IRWIN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HILARY... ...EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 124.9W ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 124.9 West. Irwin is drifting toward the northwest. A turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed are expected later today, and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today. Irwin is then expected to weaken beginning tonight or on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 28
2017-07-29 10:42:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 290842 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.7N 124.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.1N 125.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.2N 125.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 21.7N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 124.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
2017-07-29 04:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Jul 2017 02:38:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Jul 2017 02:38:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 27
2017-07-29 04:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290232 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Microwave data indicate that inner-core convection has recently developed near Irwin's center; however, the convection is not all that deep, with cloud top temperatures no colder than about -65C. Even though Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates are significantly lower, so the initial intensity will remain 50 kt. Vertical shear does not appear that it will be too prohibitive for the next 24 hours, and in fact, some models like the HWRF and HCCA suggest that Irwin could gain a little strength during that time. However, Irwin should reach waters colder than 26C in about 36 hours, which will induce a marked weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of HCCA and the ICON intensity consensus, and it now shows Irwin becoming a tropical depression by day 3. The global models no longer show Irwin being absorbed by Hilary, probably because Hilary will reach colder waters sooner and will not be energetic enough to be the dominant system. The guidance shows one of two options: Irwin absorbing Hilary or the two staying as separate system. Either way, these scenarios required keeping Irwin through day 4, but as a remnant low since ocean waters will be quite cold. Center fixes off of recent microwave images indicate that Irwin had been drifting southward or meandering for much of the day. As Hilary moves northwestward, Irwin is expected to get pulled slowly northward during the next 24-36 hours, and then accelerate north-northwestward on the east side of Hilary on days 2-4. There is a fair amount of spread among the track models, especially after 48 hours, but the NHC track forecast is close to the tight clustering consisting of the GFS, ECMWF, HCCA, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 14.8N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 15.0N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 16.0N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 17.7N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 20.0N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 24.9N 128.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 27.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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