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Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)

2017-07-29 04:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...IRWIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HILARY... ...EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 the center of Irwin was located near 14.8, -124.7 with movement N at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 27

2017-07-29 04:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 290232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 ...IRWIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HILARY... ...EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 124.7W ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 124.7 West. Irwin has been meandering for much of the day but now appears to drifting toward the north. Irwin is forecast to move faster toward the north on Saturday and then turn north-northwestward on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are possible through Saturday, but Irwin should begin to weaken by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

2017-07-29 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 290232 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 8 13(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 125W 64 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 42(47) 4(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 27

2017-07-29 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 290231 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 124.7W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 124.7W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.0N 124.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.0N 124.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.7N 125.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.0N 125.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.9N 128.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 27.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 124.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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