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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32

2017-07-30 10:52:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 300851 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 5 21(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)

2017-07-30 10:52:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...IRWIN HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATER... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 the center of Irwin was located near 17.1, -125.0 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 32

2017-07-30 10:52:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 300851 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 ...IRWIN HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 125.0W ABOUT 1060 MI...1700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 125.0 West. Irwin is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected today, followed by additional acceleration tonight and Monday. Recent satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours as the tropical storm moves over colder water, and Irwin is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 32

2017-07-30 10:51:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 300851 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 125.0W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 125.0W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 124.7W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.7N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.9N 126.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 23.2N 128.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.2N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 28.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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