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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 26
2017-07-28 22:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 282032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Although Irwin's structure on visible satellite images looks well organized, infrared data show that the convection is not very deep, and the cyclone lacks an inner core. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed much and still support an initial intensity of 50 kt. Some moderate shear will be affecting the cyclone during the next 24 to 36 hours, but it is not expected to be strong enough to disrupt the cloud pattern and result in weakening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for only small fluctuations in intensity during that period. Thereafter, the circulation is expected to reach cooler waters, and weakening should then begin. This process will continue until Irwin and Hilary merge in about 96 hours or sooner. Irwin continues to be embedded in light steering currents, and the cyclone has barely moved today. Little motion is anticipated during the next 12 hours, but by Saturday, Irwin should be steered northward and northwestward by the southerly flow in the wake of Hilary. Track guidance is in good agreement for the next 3 days, but beyond that time, models become uncertain in how the interaction of Hilary and Irwin will take place. The NHC forecast continues to call for the merging of the two weakening cyclones. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 14.9N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 15.0N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 15.8N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 16.8N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 22.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2017-07-28 22:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 282032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 31 19(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 125W 64 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 11(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-28 22:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN BARELY MOVING TODAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 the center of Irwin was located near 14.9, -125.0 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 26
2017-07-28 22:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 282031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 ...IRWIN BARELY MOVING TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 125.0W ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 125.0 West. Irwin is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued northward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today and tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 26
2017-07-28 22:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 282031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 125.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 125.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 125.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.8N 125.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.8N 125.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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