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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-06-08 16:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 081433 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013 THE CENTER OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. ALL GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE NOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE U.S. COAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WILL BE COMING TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/34 KT...AND THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IN 36 HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA AND THEN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW IN 48 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE ABSORPTION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR ATLANTIC CANADA CAN BE FOUND IN FORECASTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT WEATHER.GC.CA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 43.6N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 09/0000Z 45.9N 63.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/1200Z 47.0N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0000Z 47.7N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-06-08 10:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 080832 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 500 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE CENTER HAS BEEN PLACED NEAR THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE AND USING CONTINUITY. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 30 KNOTS. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. I DO NOT HAVE MUCH MORE TO SAY ABOUT THIS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGH LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMUNICATED THROUGH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 40.9N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 44.0N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/0600Z 46.5N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1800Z 47.5N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-06-08 04:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 080234 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CYCLONE BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER OUR BEST CENTER LOCATION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KT. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION IS LIKELY AND THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN A DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE AVAILABLE WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE...STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING FARTHER OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE 30-KT FORWARD MOTION... THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY STILL CLOSE TO 40 KT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING ABSORBED OR MERGING WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITHIN 72 HOURS. THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMUNICATED THROUGH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 38.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 08/1200Z 41.7N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/0000Z 45.4N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1200Z 46.8N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0000Z 47.0N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-06-07 22:51:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 072051 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS NO LONGER TROPICAL. DEEP CONVECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAN THE CYCLONE ITSELF...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEGUN TO LOSE DEFINITION. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS BEING DECLARED POST-TROPICAL...ADVISORIES FROM NHC WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 1448 UTC. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANDREA CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES UP THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANDREA BEING STRETCHED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 24-48 HOURS...WITH A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND ABSORBING ANDREA BY 72 HOURS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24 KT. ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED IN STRONG MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY SMALL...AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT EVEN THOUGH ANDREA HAS BECOME POST-TROPICAL...THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMUNICATED THROUGH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 36.1N 77.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 08/0600Z 39.3N 74.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/1800Z 43.4N 67.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0600Z 46.0N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1800Z 46.9N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-06-07 16:53:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 071453 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 ANDREA CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS NOT YET FRONTAL AND SOME CONVECTION IS STILL FORMING NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 KT AT THE OCEAN CREST PIER ON OAK ISLAND NORTH CAROLINA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS STILL ASSUMED THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND BECOME THE DOMINANT SYSTEM NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ANDREA SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THIS LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. ACCELERATION CONTINUES...AND ANDREA HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 035/24 KT. THERE IS NOT MUCH SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE ENTIRE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD...AND THIS SCENARIO KEEPS THE CENTER OF ANDREA...AND POTENTIALLY SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS...CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 34.4N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 37.5N 76.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1200Z 41.8N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0000Z 45.3N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 46.8N 54.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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