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Post-Tropical Cyclone BARRY Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-06-21 04:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210236 TCDAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF BARRY IS LOSING DEFINITION AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THERE IS NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...BARRY IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE DEGENERATED TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE LOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL DISSIPATION. WHILE THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON BARRY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ AND ADJACENT STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 19.6N 98.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 21/1200Z 19.6N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression BARRY Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-06-20 22:37:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202037 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BARRY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WELL INLAND OVER MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE IN THE AREA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS...AND MOST OF THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN RAINBANDS OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. DESPITE THE WEAKENING...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ AND ADJACENT STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 19.6N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 19.6N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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tropical
Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-06-20 16:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 201433 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BARRY MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN 1200 AND 1300 UTC JUST NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 KNOTS. SINCE THAT TIME...WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS ALREADY INLAND...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WESTWARD PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...PRIMARILY OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. BARRY IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS TRAPPED SOUTH OF NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.6N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/0000Z 19.6N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1200Z 19.6N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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barry
Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-06-20 10:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200834 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LAGUNA VERDE...VERACRUZ HARBOR AND SACRIFICE ISLAND STATIONS NEAR THE CITY OF VERACRUZ INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS VERY NEAR THE COAST...AND BARRY SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ SHORTLY. THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY SEEMS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TIME REMAINING BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. WEAKENING SHOULD BE RAPID AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE EXTREMELY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR ABOUT 270/4. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BARRY SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE MAIN THREAT POSED BY THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 19.6N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 19.6N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0600Z 19.6N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
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barry
Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-06-20 04:38:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200238 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 THE CENTER OF BARRY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE EARLIER ARICRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BURST OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AROUND 0000 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 40 KT ON THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...AND WAS BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND A 33-KT SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATION AT SACRIFICE ISLAND...WHICH AT THE TIME...WAS STILL LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE CENTER AND STRONGEST WINDS. A FEW OTHER OBSERVING SITES IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN THE 32 TO 38 KT RANGE SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. BARRY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 19.6N 95.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.6N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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