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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 15

2013-06-27 04:34:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270234 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COSME HAS BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION... SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM WAS BEGINNING TO BECOME DECOUPLED IN THE VERTICAL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. COSME WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER SUB-22C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE DSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...295/12. COSME IS EMBEDDED IN THE STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF COSME...OR ITS REMNANTS...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 24 TO 48 HOURS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 19.6N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 20.4N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 21.3N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1200Z 21.7N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0000Z 22.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 22.0N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z 22.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 14

2013-06-26 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 262033 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 COSME CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A COMBINATION OF CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYEWALL HAS DISSIPATED...AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT BASED ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY AND THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THAT TIME. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY CONSTRAINED BY THE DECAY RULES OF THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF COSME SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME. SOME DECELERATION MAY OCCUR AROUND 96-120 HOURS AS THE REMNANTS OF COSME APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. COSME SHOULD CONTINUE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 21C-24C. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A CONVECTIONLESS REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 19.3N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 19.9N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 21.6N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z 21.9N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z 22.0N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 13

2013-06-26 16:47:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261447 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 COSME HAS BEGUN ITS WEAKENING PHASE...AS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER CLOSED. BASED UPON THE INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...THE TAFB AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 3.0/4.0...WHILE THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INDICATES T3.7 OR 55-60 KT. THE INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE 60 KT...JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. A 0937Z AMSU SATELLITE PASS PROVIDED GUIDANCE ON THE TROPICAL STORM WIND RADII...WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY BASED UPON THE CIRA SIZE ANALYSIS. THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU PASS ALONG WITH AN 1106Z SSMI PASS ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION OF COSME. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT...DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. COSME SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE BENDING WESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...IN PART DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION. THE TRACK PREDICTION IS LIKEWISE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WHILE COSME SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY DECAY DUE TO TRAVERSING COLD WATER. EVEN THOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY QUITE VIGOROUS...WHEN COSME REACHES 22C SSTS TOMORROW THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO COLLAPSE...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE VARIABLE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS A BIT BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 19.9N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 20.8N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 21.8N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z 22.3N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 22.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z 22.5N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 22.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Hurricane COSME Forecast Discussion Number 12

2013-06-26 10:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260831 TCDEP3 HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 COSME LIKELY PEAKED WITH AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT AT 0000 AND 0600 UTC BASED ON A BLEND OF VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE PRESENCE OF AN 18 NMI DIAMETER EYE IN WINDSAT...SSMIS...AND AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0100 UTC AND 0430 UTC. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SINCE THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION HAS ERODED SIGNIFICANTLY AS COSME HAS BEGUN ITS TREK OVER COLDER WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 70 KT. AFTER THE MULTIPLE JOGS AND WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...HURRICANE COSME APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED INTO A NICE SMOOTH MOTION OF 290/12 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MASSIVE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH... AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AFTER THAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AND IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. COSME IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE 26C SST ISOTHERM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATER...REACHING SUB-22C SSTS BY 36 HOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND THE ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FACTORS THAT COULD POSSIBLY HELP COSME RETAIN HURRICANE STATUS FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS. BY 18-24 HOURS... HOWEVER...THE MUCH COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE... WITH DEGENERATION INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS... IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INDICATES DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.4N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 20.6N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.1N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 21.7N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z 21.7N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 21.7N 138.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane COSME Forecast Discussion Number 11

2013-06-26 04:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260250 TCDEP3 HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 A BANDING EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY PRESENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT COSME NEARLY HAD A CLOSED EYEWALL AROUND 0000 UTC. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE CLOSING. COSME IS LOCATED OVER A SHARP GRADIENT IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IS MOVING INTO A HOSTILE OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT...AND COSME IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/12. WHILE THIS RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER COSME GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...ALLOWING COSME TO GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE NEW FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 17.9N 113.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.6N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 19.5N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 20.3N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 20.9N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 21.7N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 22.0N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH

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