je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-06-18 10:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180835 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RAGGED... AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO FIND IN THE MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND JOGGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/07. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. IN GENERAL...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTHWARD...FOR THIS CYCLE. GIVEN THIS SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE AND THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES SOUTH OF THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS TRACKS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AFTER THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN FORECAST...IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWN HERE. HOWEVER...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.0N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/1800Z 17.5N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/0600Z 18.1N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1800Z 18.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 20/0600Z 18.6N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 21/0600Z 18.7N 96.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-06-18 04:43:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180243 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 8 KT THIS EVENING OVER BELIZE...AS BEST CAN BE DETERMINED FROM THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND SPARSE OBSERVATIONAL DATA. A CONTINUED TRACK IN THIS DIRECTION...THOUGH SLOWER...SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT ABOUT DAY THREE...A BEND TO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED...WHICH IS COMMON FOR CYCLONES REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT JUST SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. NOTE THAT WHILE A 96 HR FORECAST POINT IS PROVIDED TO SHOW CONTINUITY OF THE TRACK OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE QUITE THAT LONG OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KT. IT IS OF NOTE THAT BEFORE LANDFALL A 1904Z AMSU PASS INDICATED A MODEST UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAD DEVELOPED...WITH THE CIMSS INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT IT MIGHT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER LAND FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HR...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY. AS THE FORECAST TRACK NOW ONLY BRIEFLY HAS THE CYCLONE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS CONTINUING...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER MEXICO. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE EARLIER WHILE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 16.7N 88.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/1200Z 17.2N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/0000Z 17.8N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/1200Z 18.2N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/0000Z 18.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 18.8N 96.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 22/0000Z 18.5N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-06-17 22:40:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 172040 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 500 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN HARD TO LOCATE THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE SYSTEM DID NOT STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN FACT BECAME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND...SOME OF IT MOUNTAINOUS...FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREFORE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE IN THAT TIME FRAME. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WEAKENING...BUT REMAINING IN PLACE...OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE 1800 UTC TRACK GUIDANCE IS SOMETHAT SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THIS MORNING...AND SO IS THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS...HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF MODEL RUN IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 16.4N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.2N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1800Z 17.9N 91.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0600Z 18.4N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/1800Z 18.8N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 19.3N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z 19.5N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-06-17 17:09:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 171509 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CENTER IS NEARING THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IF THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUESDAY AS INDICATED BY THE NHC FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/11. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW AN EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.2N 87.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.9N 89.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 18.0N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 19/1200Z 19.3N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 20/1200Z 19.7N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
BIM4FM creates online discussion group
2013-06-12 11:22:00| BIFM News
BIM4FM group has created an online discussion group to stimulate the conversation around the engagement of facilities managers, owners and occupiers in Building Information Modelling (BIM) and Government Soft Landings (GSL).
Tags: online
group
discussion
creates
Sites : [1265] [1266] [1267] [1268] [1269] [1270] [1271] [1272] [1273] [1274] [1275] [1276] [1277] [1278] [1279] [1280] [1281] [1282] [1283] [1284] next »