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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 5

2013-06-24 16:42:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241441 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF COSME BEGAN JUST AFTER 0600 UTC AND HAS PERSISTED SINCE THAT TIME. SOME NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...YET TAFB AND SAB BOTH PROVIDED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT. THE OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS EVEN HIGHER AT 50 KT. EITHER WAY...COSME IS STRENGTHENING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTER HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME EASIER TO LOCATE BASED ON A 1241 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS AND THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES. THE BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO JUMP TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...BUT SMOOTHING THE TRACK YIELDS A 12-HOUR MOTION OF 315/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IN 2-3 DAYS...WHICH WILL TEND TO STEER COSME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK MODELS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AROUND COSME SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS PERIOD ALSO HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS OVER WATER WARMER THAN 26C. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT STRENGTHENING...AND THEY ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST SHOWN BY THE LGEM. WEAKENING SHOULD STILL BEGIN BY 72 HOURS...WITH THE CYCLONE LIKELY DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 16.0N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 16.7N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 17.5N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 20.0N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 4

2013-06-24 10:45:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240844 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SEVERAL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM COSME. IN FACT...ASCAT-B AND ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASSES AT 0404Z AND 0450Z...RESPECTIVELY...INDICATED SEVERAL 34- TO 37-KT WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO REVEALED THAT COSME HAD MOVED MORE WESTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THAT THE CENTER AS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SMALL CDO-LIKE CONVECTIVE FEATURE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09 KT. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR OF 10-15 KT AS INDICATED IN UW-CIMMS SHEAR ANALYSES IS THE LIKELY REASON FOR THE RECENT WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER... THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND COSME IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARDS...A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF COSME SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE EXPECTED WEAKENING AND VERTICALLY SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. SINCE COSME IS ALREADY AT LEAST 30 NMI TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE NEW ADVISORY TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH... AND BASICALLY LIES ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...AS COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THE CYCLONE WILL ENTER A LESS HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES MUCH COOLER WATERS BY 72 HOURS. DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...THE LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF AT LEAST 90 NMI SHOULD KEEP INTENSIFICATION SLOWER THAN THE AVERAGE RATE OF ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY. BY 72 HOURS...COSME WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND SHIFOR INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 12.8N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 15.2N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 16.2N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 17.0N 113.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 18.5N 118.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 19.7N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2013-06-24 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240233 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE...WITH A LACK OF WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER FROM TAFB. ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FAVOR STRENGTHENING...THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY HINDERING THE PACE OF DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODEL SOLUTIONS. INTERESTINGLY...THE DSHIPS FORECAST CALLS FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER INTENSITY IN 2-3 DAYS THAN DOES LGEM. BY 72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING FAIRLY RAPIDLY. CENTER FIXES HAVE SIGNIFICANT SCATTER BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/6. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING WINDS. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 12.6N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 13.5N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.1N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.2N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 17.0N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 20.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2013-06-23 22:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232031 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SMALL CHANGES WITH THE DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT WHILE SOME OF THE OUTER BANDING HAS DIMINISHED...THE EARLIER CENTRAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORPHING INTO A CURVED BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25-30 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. ALMOST ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE LARGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR IS PROBABLY THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD KEEP IT FROM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL...AND A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER IN 3-4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY ABOUT 120 H. THE ASCAT DATA HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...JUST A BIT TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEPRESSION ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS A RATHER NARROW SPREAD...AND OTHER THAN A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 H...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 12.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 12.7N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.3N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 15.7N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 16.6N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 20.0N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 20.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2013-06-23 16:49:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231448 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH OF A CENTER TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...WITH LARGE BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. OTHER THAN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENTS TO THIS DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST 12-24 HR WHILE IT HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL EXIT THE ITCZ BY TOMORROW AND BE STEERED BY A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR 4-5 DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOWER CYCLONE AND TAKE A WESTWARD TURN AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FOR A FIRST ADVISORY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 11.8N 103.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 12.2N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 15.2N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 16.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

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