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Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Discussion Number 10

2013-06-19 22:44:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 192043 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BARRY...THE SECOND NAMED CYCLONE OF THE 2013 SEASON. SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. SOME SFMR VALUES WERE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT THESE WINDS WERE RAIN CONTAMINATED AND WERE DISCARDED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BARRY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...BUT RAINS WILL CONTINUE. BARRY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARS SPEED IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...AND THE CENTER BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ UNTIL DISSIPATION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SO PLEASE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 19.6N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 19.6N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.6N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0600Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number discussion storm barry

 

Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 9

2013-06-19 16:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191433 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...IF IT IS NOT ONE NOW. IN FACT...A MEXICAN NAVY METEOROLOGICAL STATION MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION EARLIER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CURRENT SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO ABATE AS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS ROOM FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING 280 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS... THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY THE STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.6N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.5N 95.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 19.5N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 
 

Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 8

2013-06-19 10:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190838 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE DISTINCT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 25 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...THAT CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER THE SYSTEM WHEN IT NEARS THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MOST RECENT STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE CENTER OF THIS SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE ON NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 300/8. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER TEXAS SHOULD INDUCE SOME ADDITIONAL DECELERATION ALONG WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL FORECAST...AND DELAYS THE TIME OF LANDFALL IN MEXICO A LITTLE IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST ADVISORY. BASED ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS... THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 19.3N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 19.4N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.4N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 19.3N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/0600Z 19.2N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 6

2013-06-18 22:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 182037 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.3N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 5

2013-06-18 16:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 181435 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 THE CENTER IS BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MOST OF THE YUCATAN PENISULA. BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT THE CIRCULATION COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH LATER TODAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER LAND. HOWEVER...IF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. EVEN IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LAND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS WHICH IN FACT HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS OBSERVED IN THE MODELS IN THIS AREA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ALTHOUGH A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.9N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.1N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 19/1200Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 20/0000Z 19.0N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 20/1200Z 19.1N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 21/1200Z 19.2N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

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