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Hurricane COSME Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-06-25 22:51:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252051 TCDEP3 HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED...THOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY ONLY PERIODICALLY SHOWS THIS FEATURE. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE VALUES HAVE INCREASED AND SUGGEST A RANGE OF 65 TO 77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...COSME JOGGED BACK TO THE LEFT SOME AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ANALYZED TO BE 295/15. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. AS COSME GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED AS IT IS ADVECTED ALONG BY THE MID TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AT THE 12 AND 24 HOUR POINTS AND CLOSE TO THE TRACK THEREAFTER. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. WHILE WEAK NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OCCURRING NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION... COSME INSTEAD WILL LIKELY BE PEAKING SHORTLY IN INTENSITY DUE TO ITS TRAVERSING RAPIDLY COOLING WATERS. ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...COSME SHOULD PASS THE 26C ISOTHERM TONIGHT AND REACH SUB-22C SSTS BY THURSDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE PEAKING SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY RATHER QUICK WEAKENING DUE TO RATHER HOSTILE THERMODYNAMICS. THE PREDICTION ANTICIPATES THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...BUT THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSEST TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE PROVIDED BY TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.9N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.5N 114.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.3N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 20.3N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 20.9N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z 22.0N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane COSME Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-06-25 16:42:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251442 TCDEP3 HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT COSME HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN AND OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES OF AN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 65 KT. IN ADDITION...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED AN ALMOST-CLOSED EYEWALL WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 67 KT. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE...COSME IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. COSME HAS JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH A 12-HOUR MOTION OF 305/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT TIME...COSME SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS IT WEAKENS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS PARALLEL TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. THE NEW TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN NORMAL. COSME IS IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS IT REACHING 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...FOLLWED BY STEADY WEAKENING OVER DECREASING SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 24-36 HOURS...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDED BY THE TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.7N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.2N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.9N 114.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 19.6N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 20.4N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.5N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 21.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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COOP Workshop Discussion Items - 5/30/2013
2013-06-25 16:06:47| PortlandOnline
Discussion items from a Continuity of Operations (COOP) planning workshop for Fleet and Procurement on May 30, 2013. PDF Document, 53kbCategory: COOP Writing Guides and Resources
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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-06-25 10:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250841 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE INTERNAL AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT...UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE LEVELED OFF AT ABOUT T3.6/57 KT FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS RECENTLY BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-TO-SOUTH AND THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. A BLEND OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...RECENT ADT VALUES... AND CIRA AND CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 47 KT AND 49 KT... RESPECTIVELY...YIELDS AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 55 KT...WHICH WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS SYMMETRICAL AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WERE USED TO DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF COSME...WHICH YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/14 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. COSME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG AND WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...A RAPIDLY WEAKENING COSME SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE...AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA. UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT COSME HAS AGAIN MOVED INTO A MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE MID-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAY BE THE CAUSE OF THE RECENT DISHEVELED LOOKING INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MORE FAVORABLE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIMES LATER TODAY...ALLOWING COSME TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES SUB-25C SSTS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS BY 48 HOURS...AND COSME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDED BY THE TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 16.5N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 17.2N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 17.9N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.5N 116.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 19.3N 118.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 20.4N 124.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 20.9N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 20.9N 134.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-06-24 22:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242033 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 THE CENTER OF COSME IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW DEVELOPING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THERE IS NOW A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE TO THE CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR THE CENTER ITSELF. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED STRENGTHENING...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 310/12...AS THE CENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO TRACK FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT ASIDE FROM THAT THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD. COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES...COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WHILE IT WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.0N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 16.0N 108.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.0N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 18.3N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 20.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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