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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 2

2013-06-30 10:36:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300836 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 35 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL IS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSING SMALL SHEAR OVER DALILA...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE CYCLONE CAUSING SLIGHT SHEAR. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED WEST OF DALILA WEAKENS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SHIPS MODEL IS NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC WITH DALILA...AND ONLY SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION. HWRF AND FL STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER CYCLONE. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/9 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DALILA WILL SOON ENCOUNTER A LARGE DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN FACT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OF THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS MODEL TREND...BUT SINCE IT IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 14.6N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 15.9N 103.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 17.6N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 18.3N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 19.3N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 19.3N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 19.5N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2013-06-30 04:38:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300238 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS NOW ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN FEATURES A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH SOME RAGGED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE SITUATED NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/09...GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION FEATURES A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE FEATURES SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEN THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS...FOLLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS MODEL TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SEVERAL OF THEM DO NOT INITIALIZE THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL. GIVEN THIS...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS OR SO...AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS. BY DAY 4...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 13.7N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.9N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 16.1N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 17.1N 104.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 17.9N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 19.2N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 
 

Post-Tropical Cyclone COSME Forecast Discussion Number 18

2013-06-27 22:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 272032 TCDEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 COSME CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. PASSIVE WIND DATA FROM A SERIES OF SSM/IS OVERPASSES SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL-STORM FORCE. BASED ON THIS AND THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT COSME HAS DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/15. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO SLOW THEIR FORWARD SPEED BY 72-96 HR AS THEY APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON COSME BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 20.9N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 28/0600Z 21.3N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1800Z 21.5N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0600Z 21.5N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 21.5N 132.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z 21.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z 22.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number discussion forecast cyclone

 

Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 17

2013-06-27 16:40:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271440 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 COSME HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 22-23C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. BARRING AN UNEXPECTED RETURN OF THE CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY DECAYS TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 120 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/14. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO SLOW THEIR FORWARD SPEED BY 72-96 HR AS THEY APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 20.4N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 20.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 21.4N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 21.5N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 21.5N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 22.0N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 16

2013-06-27 10:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270832 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 ALL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COSME HAS DISAPPEARED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF COSME HAVE DECOUPLED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...NEAR AN AVERAGE OF A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES FROM 0445 AND 0530 UTC. WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24H...COSME IS PROBABLY FINISHED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNLIKELY TO REDEVELOP. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY LATE TODAY ALONG WITH A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE WINDS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A BIT FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...290/14. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON TRACK AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE REMNANTS OF COSME WILL PROBABLY TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND SLOW SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TRACK CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 20.1N 119.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 20.7N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 28/0600Z 21.4N 124.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1800Z 21.8N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 21.8N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 21.8N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 22.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

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