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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-06-07 22:48:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 072048 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 At least two low-level vortices have been noted rotating cyclonically within the broad inner-core circulation, with one swirl located southeast of the advisory position approaching the Mississippi Delta and the other swirl located inland to the northwest of Grand Isle, Louisiana. The larger swirl in the southeastern quadrant will likely become the dominant low-level circulation center later tonight after that feature moves inland and frictional convergence tightens up the broad inner-core wind field a little bit. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on data from surface observations and NOAA Doppler radar velocity data from Slidell and Mobile, along with a satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 355/06 kt due to the uncertainty in the center position. Some erratic motion will still be possible for the next 6-12 hours due to the dumb-belling motion of the multiple low-level circulations. Overall, however, the models remain in excellent agreement on Cristobal turning north-northwestward tonight and continuing that motion through 24 hours. By Monday night, a turn toward north is forecast, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of an approaching frontal system. The cyclone is expected to slow down on days 3 and 4 during extratropical transition. The new NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous track forecast, and lies down the center of the the tightly packed consensus models. No significant intensification is expected before landfall occurs late this afternoon or early evening primarily due to Cristobal's broad wind field. However, intrusions of dry air could result in wind gusts of 55-60 kt in some of the stronger squalls. After landfall, only slow weakening is expected due to the cyclone's large wind field. In the 60-96 hour period, some slight strengthening to gale-force strength is forecast due to strong baroclinic forcing during the extratropical transition, and a long southerly to south-southwesterly wind fetch blowing across Lake Michigan. The official intensity closely follows a blend of the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global models. Cristobal remains a broad and asymmetric storm. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, since the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall extend well away the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue to spread along the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans this evening, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across north Florida into this evening, diminishing overnight. Heavy rain will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast this afternoon and into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to heavy rain issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal from tonight through Monday. This heavy rain will move up the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday, then across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 29.1N 89.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 30.9N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1800Z 33.4N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 36.7N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1800Z 40.5N 90.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0600Z 45.2N 88.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1800Z 48.7N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z 53.2N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-06-07 10:45:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070845 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 Cristobal continues to resemble a subtropical cyclone more than a tropical cyclone. The convection near the center remains limited, although it has become a little better organized during the past several hours. In addition, aircraft and scatterometer data show that the radius of maximum winds remains at or above 90 n mi. These data also suggest that a 45 kt intensity may be a bit generous, but since the central pressure remains near 993 mb the intensity has not changed for this advisory. The initial motion is 360/10 between a deep-layer ridge to Cristobal's east and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. This general motion should continue for 12-18 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest due to a mid-latitude ridge passing north of the cyclone. After 36 h, a turn toward the north and north-northeast is expected as Cristobal or its remnants encounter the mid-latitude westerlies. There are no important changes to either the track guidance or the forecast track since the last advisory. The broad nature of the cyclone and significant dry air entrainment is likely to prevent intensification before landfall, and the new intensity forecast holds the intensity constant at 45 kt until that time. Weakening is expected after landfall, with Cristobal weakening below tropical-storm strength just after the 24 h point. The new intensity forecast shows slight re-intensification as the system become extratropical at 72-96 h in agreement with the global model guidance. Cristobal remains a broad and asymmetric storm. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds should spread along the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans today, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across north Florida this morning, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal from Sunday night into Monday. This heavy rain will move up the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday, then across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 27.3N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 28.7N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 30.8N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1800Z 33.3N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0600Z 36.6N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1800Z 40.9N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0600Z 46.0N 89.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 52.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-06-07 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 059 WTNT43 KNHC 070241 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 Cristobal has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm continues to exhibit more of a subtropical appearance in satellite images with a broad wind field and a limited amount of deep convection near the center. The most intense convection has been in a squall line that is well east of the center near or over portions of the Florida peninsula. Data from both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters support holding the initial wind speed at 45 kt for this advisory. The center of Cristobal recently passed very near NOAA buoy 42001 in the central Gulf of Mexico, which was helpful in assessing the storm's minimum pressure. Cristobal is moving northward at about 10 kt between a deep-layer ridge to its east and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. This general motion should continue for about another day, taking the center of the storm across the Louisiana coast by Sunday night. After the storm makes landfall, a slight turn to the northwest is expected on Monday in response to a mid-level ridge shifting eastward across the southeast U.S. The track models are in very good agreement and only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. Cristobal has about another 18-24 hours over water in which it could strengthen. However, given its broad structure, lack of deep convection near the center, and dry air that is wrapping into the west and south sides of the circulation, only a little strengthening is predicted. After the storm makes landfall, steady weakening is forecast and the cyclone should weaken to a tropical depression by late Monday. Cristobal is a broad and asymmetric storm. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin overnight along the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue from central to north Florida overnight, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana on Sunday. This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains into Tuesday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller rivers, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf coast through the Mississippi River Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 26.2N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 29.5N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1200Z 31.8N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 34.5N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1200Z 38.3N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0000Z 43.0N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 50.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-06-06 22:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062046 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 Cristobal continues to lack the appearance and structure of a typical tropical cyclone. In fact, the large radius of maximum wind and convective bands well removed from the center are more characteristic of a subtropical cyclone. Based on earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations, the maximum winds are about 45 kt. The central pressure has held steady during the last couple of fixes of the aircraft mission, suggesting no significant strengthening since this morning. Since the system is not well organized and is likely to continue to ingest some more dry air, only a little more strengthening is expected until landfall. The official intensity forecast is unchanged and remains close to the model consensus. The cyclone remains on track and is moving northward, or 360/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. The system should continue northward between two mid-level anticyclones until it nears the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, a slight building of a ridge to the northeast should induce a turn toward the north-northwest. In 3-4 days, the post-tropical cyclone should accelerate north-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough. Thereafter, the global models suggest that the system should merge with an extratropical cyclone near the Great Lakes. The official track forecast is in good agreement with the dynamical model consensus and is also close to the latest GFS solution. Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it makes landfall. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late tonight along the northern Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across west and north Florida today, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today into Sunday. This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller streams, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 25.2N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 26.7N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 28.5N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1800Z 33.0N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0600Z 36.0N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1800Z 40.5N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 10/1800Z 49.0N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-06-06 16:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 061448 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 Cristobal's satellite presentation continues to lack the appearance of a classic tropical cyclone, with a large curved band over the northern semicircle and little deep convection near the center. The latest flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft support a current intensity of 45 kt. Based on the poorly-organized state of the system, some dry air entrainment, and interaction with an upper-level low, only some slow strengthening is forecast, as in the previous advisories. The NHC intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the model consensus. The storm is moving northward at a slightly slower 10 kt. There has not been much change in the track forecast or forecast reasoning. Cristobal should continue northward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge until tomorrow evening, bringing the center to the northern Gulf coast in about 36 hours. Later, a turn to the north-northwest, and then back to the north is forecast as the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge and a trough approaching the central United States. In 3-4 days, the post-tropical system should accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of the trough and move into Canada. Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it makes landfall. Therefore, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast path as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well to the east of the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late tonight along the northern Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across west and north Florida today, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today into Sunday. This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller streams, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley. 4. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Additional rainfall from Cristobal will continue to slowly subside, however life-threatening flash floods and mudslides will still be possible through today. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 24.2N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 27.4N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 29.3N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON THE COAST 48H 08/1200Z 31.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0000Z 34.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1200Z 38.0N 92.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 10/1200Z 47.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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