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Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-06-23 04:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230237 TCDAT4 Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 The cyclone has little or no deep convection near its center, and remains situated beneath an upper-level low. Therefore, the system is still a subtropical cyclone and the intensity is kept at 30 kt in agreement with the most recent satellite classification from TAFB. The 30-kt intensity was also supported by recent scatterometer data. There is a small window of opportunity for strengthening since the system should remain over a relatively warm Gulf Stream eddy for 12 hours or so. Thereafter, a weakening trend is expected to begin and the system should make the transition to an extratropical cyclone over cooler waters in 36 hours or sooner. The global models indicate that the system should open up into a trough in a couple of days so the official forecast shows dissipation by 72 hours. It would not be surprising if the system meets its demise sooner than that. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS guidance. The motion continues east-northeastward, or 060/9 kt. Over the next few days, the cyclone should remain embedded in a branch of west-southwesterlies that is split off from the main mid-latitude flow. There is good agreement in the track guidance that the system will turn northeastward with some acceleration during the next 48-60 hours. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is also close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 38.7N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 39.2N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 40.3N 60.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 42.0N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/0000Z 44.0N 55.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/1200Z 46.0N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-06-22 22:45:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 276 WTNT44 KNHC 222045 TCDAT4 Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 The non-tropical low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been following for the past couple of days off of the U.S. east coast has developed enough organized convection near the center to be classified as subtropical depression. The subtropical status is due to the low-level circulation center being co-located beneath an upper-level cold low as seen in water vapor imagery. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on earlier ASCAT wind data indicating numerous surface wind vectors of 26-28 kt in the southern semicircle, along with a TAFB subtropical satellite classification of ST1.5/25-30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 075/08 kt. Subtropical Depression Four is located north of a deep-layer ridge and is being influenced by weak westerly mid- to upper-level flow. The cyclone is forecast by all of the global and regional models to move east-northeastward tonight and then turn northeastward on Tuesday. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected Tuesday night through Thursday when the system is forecast to be located over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. The cyclone should be absorbed by a larger extratropical low or dissipate on Thursday. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the simple consensus aids TVCN and GFEX and the NOAA-HCCA corrected consensus. The cyclone is beginning to move over a ridge of higher SSTs of 26.0-26.5 deg C in the northern extent of the Gulf Stream. The forecast track takes the subtropical depression down the length of the axis of warmer water during the next 12-18 h, so there is the potential for the cyclone to become a subtropical storm during that time, especially given the large pool of cold air aloft, with 200-mb temperatures of near -58 deg C and 500-mb temperatures of about -10 deg C which is creating a lot of instability. After the system moves off of the warm ridge and into sharply cooler water around 36 hours or so, gradual weakening is expected, with transition to an extratropical cyclone forecast by 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the consensus models ICON, IVCN, and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 38.2N 65.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 38.5N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 39.0N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 40.5N 59.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 42.5N 56.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0600Z 45.0N 53.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1800Z 47.8N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 28
2020-06-08 16:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081442 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 Cristobal continues to move further inland. Surface observations along with radar and satellite images indicate that the center is located over northeastern Louisiana. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 995 mb, and the initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, based on several observations of 25-30 kt along and offshore of the Mississippi and Alabama coasts. The depression is still producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms generally to the north and east of the center. The depression is moving faster to the northwest than before, and the latest initial motion estimate is 325/13 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn to the north by tonight and then accelerate north-northeastward late Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a trough to its west. This track should take Cristobal, and its extratropical remnants, across the Midwest and over central and eastern Canada during the next few days. Some weakening is expected during the next day or so as Cristobal continues to track inland. However, slight re-intensification as an extratropical cyclone is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday as Cristobal becomes involved with a mid-latitude system over the Upper Mississippi Valley. The combination of Cristobal and the mid-latitude cyclone will likely cause gusty winds over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions around the middle of the week. This is the last NHC advisory on Cristobal. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain associated with Cristobal will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley today, then up the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley tonight through Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed isolated significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 32.5N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0000Z 34.3N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 38.0N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0000Z 42.4N 90.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1200Z 47.4N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0000Z 51.1N 84.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z 52.2N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z 51.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-06-08 10:36:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080836 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020 Radar and surface observations indicate that Cristobal has continued to weaken as it moves farther inland. The initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt, with these winds occuring over portions of the coastline and coastal waters from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. The surface observations also indicate that the central pressure is near 994 mb. While the cyclone is weakening, satellite and radar data show a large area of convective bands continuing in the northeastern quadrant. The initial motion is now 330/9. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Cristobal should continue north-northwestward today as a high pressure ridge over the Great Lakes slides eastward. The cyclone is expected to turn northward by tonight around the east side of the ridge, and then it should turn northeastward on Tuesday ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States. A faster northeastward motion should bring the center of the cyclone across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and into Canada on Wednesday. After that time, the system is expected to slow down after it completes its extratropical transition. There is little change to the previous forecast track except at 96 h, where the new forecast is a bit south of the previous forecast. The cyclone should continue to gradually weaken for the next 36-48 h as it moves farther inland. After that time, some re-intensification is expected as Cristobal becomes involved with mid-latitude cyclogenesis over the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the intensity forecast will call for the system to be a 35-kt extratropical low by 60 h. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate inside the envelope of another extratropical low by 120 h. It should be noted that Cristobal and the mid-latitude cyclone will combine to possibly cause gusty winds over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Although Cristobal has weakened, life-threatening storm surge is expected to continue over a portion of the northern Gulf coast today. Heavy rains associated with the system will also spread over portions of the central United States over the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Although the center of Cristobal has moved inland, there remains a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Heavy rain associated with Cristobal will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley today, then up the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley Monday night through Tuesday night. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to heavy rain issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal through Monday. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. 3. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are expected this morning in the coastal areas from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. In addition, the combination of Cristobal and a mid-latitude cyclone may cause gust winds by midweek over portions of the Midwest and Great lakes regions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 31.0N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1800Z 32.7N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0600Z 35.8N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 39.9N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0600Z 44.7N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/1800Z 49.0N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z 51.0N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z 51.5N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-06-08 04:50:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080250 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 Earlier satellite, radar, and surface observations showed that the center of Cristobal made landfall in southeastern Louisiana around 2200 UTC. Since that time, the storm has turned north- northwestward with the center passing very near New Orleans. Recent Doppler radar data and surface observations suggest that the maximum winds have begun to decrease, and the advisory intensity is set to 40 kt. These winds are primarily occurring over the northern Gulf of Mexico waters. The initial motion estimate is 345/9 kt. Cristobal should continue north-northwestward overnight as a high pressure ridge over the Great Lakes slides eastward. The cyclone is expected to turn northward by Monday night, and then northeastward on Tuesday ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States. A faster northeastward motion should bring the center of the cyclone across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and into Canada on Wednesday. After that time, the system is expected to slow down after it completes its extratropical transition. The early portion of the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly eastward based on the more northward and eastward initial position, however the remainder of the track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and the various consensus aids. Gradual weakening should occur overnight as the circulation continues to move over land, and Cristobal is forecast to become a tropical depression Monday morning. Additional gradual weakening is anticipated while the cyclone moves over the central U.S. through Tuesday, but some slight re-strengthening is possible due to strong baroclinic forcing during the extratropical transition around midweek. The NHC intensity forecast is primarily a blend of the global models. As the system completes its extratropical transition, strong gusty winds are possible mid week behind an associated front over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Although Cristobal has begun weakening, tropical-storm-force winds and life-threatening storm surge is expected to continue over a portion of the northern Gulf coast overnight. Heavy rains associated with the system will also spread over portions of the central United States over the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue along portions of the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans through the overnight hours, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. 3. Heavy rainfall across north Florida should diminish overnight. Heavy rain will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday night. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to heavy rain issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal through Monday. This heavy rain will move up the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday, then across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 30.3N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 34.6N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 38.1N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0000Z 42.9N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/1200Z 47.5N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 50.8N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z 52.8N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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