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Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-05-27 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 271432 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020 1100 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 The circulation of Bertha remained compact yet well-defined through landfall, which occurred around 930 AM EDT near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina. Buoy data around that time indicated that maximum sustained winds had increased to around 45 kt. Although the center has moved inland, a strong rain band with onshore flow continues to slowly migrate northward along the South Carolina coast. Therefore it is anticipated that tropical-storm-force winds will remain possible in the warning area over the next few hours. Bertha is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today, then weaken to a remnant low tonight as the center moves farther inland. Model guidance is in good agreement on taking the weakening cyclone north to north-northwestward through tonight, followed by a turn to the north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed later on Thursday. This official track is only slightly east of the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Bertha may produce life-threatening flash flooding across portions of eastern to central South Carolina into west central to far southeast North Carolina and Southwest Virginia. Ongoing river flooding will be aggravated and recessions prolonged in the region. 2. Bertha is expected to continue to bring tropical storm winds to portions of the South Carolina coast within the warning area over next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 33.3N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 35.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1200Z 38.8N 79.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven
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Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-05-27 14:09:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 271209 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bertha Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020 830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking over the past day or so has quickly become better organized this morning. The circulation has become better defined and the center has reformed beneath the area of deep convection just offshore of the coast of South Carolina. Recent NWS Doppler radar data from Charleston and buoy data indicates that the system is producing tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Bertha. The system will be moving inland very shortly and little, if any, additional strengthening is expected. Once inland, the small tropical cyclone should weaken rapidly and dissipated over central North Carolina on Thursday. There is very little continuity on the initial motion since the center has only recently formed. The best estimate of the initial motion is 320/8 kt. The system should continue to move generally northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Key Messages: 1. Bertha is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of eastern and central South Carolina, west-central to far southeastern North Carolina, and southwest Virginia. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding. 2. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm winds to portions of the South Carolina coast within the warning area in the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1230Z 32.7N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 33.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/0600Z 35.8N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan/Brown
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May 2020 UFC Priorities Discussion PPT
2020-05-20 03:10:18| PortlandOnline
PDF Document, 2,101kbCategory: May 2020
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-05-19 16:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 191446 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020 Arthur has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning with a warm front extending northeastward from the circulation, any deep convection only along the front, and lots of more stable cumulus clouds near the center. Thus this is the last advisory. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on continuity and model analyses. The main adjustments to the previous forecast include a quicker dissipation of the post-tropical cyclone, somewhat linked to the models showing a faster weakening after 12 hours, and a continuation of the westward shift in the track forecast in a day or two. These changes are consistent with the latest model consensus for track and similar to a GFS/ECMWF blend for intensity. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 36.8N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 20/0000Z 36.4N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0000Z 33.6N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-05-19 10:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190831 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Arthur's cloud pattern has continued to take on a generally post-tropical appearance, though a recent convective burst near its center suggests that it isn't quite post-tropical yet. Satellite imagery and earlier scatterometer data also indicate the presence of a developing warm front near the cyclone's center, and this could be contributing the the development of the aforementioned convective burst. ASCAT-C data that arrived early this morning showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt, and this was the primary basis for the initial intensity. Virtually no change was made to the intensity forecast. Despite the recent increase of convection near Arthur's center, extratropical transition should finish fairly soon. Slight strengthening due to baroclinic forcing is possible through the afternoon, but the cyclone is forecast to begin spinning down by tonight or Wednesday morning. The global and regional models indicate that the system will dissipate within about 72 h, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Only small adjustments were made to the track forecast, which remains near the multi-model consensus. As Arthur weakens it should be steered generally southward around the east side of a low-level ridge. The models differ on how quickly the southward turn will occur, but all agree on that general scenario. The latest NHC forecast is a little west of the previous one after 24 h. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 37.0N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 36.9N 68.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/0600Z 36.1N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/1800Z 34.6N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0600Z 33.3N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/1800Z 32.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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