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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-06-05 04:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050236 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 Cristobal is not very well organized at the moment as the center of the circulation remains inland over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. Satellite images and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms lack banding features and the center is becoming less distinct. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but these winds are likely occurring over water well to the north and east of the center. The depression is moving slowly to the east as it nears the completion of a cyclonic loop around the Central American gyre that it has been embedded within. The models show the depression turning northward soon on the west side of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. This should take Cristobal back over the southern Gulf of Mexico waters by Friday night, and across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. A fairly progressive ridge moving across the central U.S. could cause Cristobal to turn to the left slightly as it moves across the Gulf coast late this weekend and early next week. There remains a fair amount of spread in the model solutions, with the GFS being the fastest and farthest east and the ECMWF much slower and to the west. The NHC track forecast is between those scenarios and lies near the various consensus aids, which typically have the lowest errors. Cristobal is forecast to remain inland for another 12 to 24 hours, so little change in strength is anticipated during that time. After the system moves back over water, gradual strengthening seems likely until Cristobal reaches the northern Gulf coast. The intensification rate should be slow since Cristobal is a large system and will be moving into an environment of moderate wind shear and some dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update from earlier and lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. Cristobal is expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Given the expected environmental conditions, the strongest winds, highest storm surge, and heaviest rains could be well removed from the center of circulation. Therefore, it is important that users do not focus on the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone. For more information on the potential impacts, see the Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal's center. Storm surge and tropical storm watches will likely be issued for a portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Friday. 3. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast from east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 17.8N 90.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 05/1200Z 19.1N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0000Z 20.9N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 06/1200Z 22.5N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 07/0000Z 24.3N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/1200Z 26.3N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 08/0000Z 28.3N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 09/0000Z 32.6N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0000Z 37.3N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-06-04 22:41:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042041 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 The cyclone's cloud pattern is quite disorganized, with little deep convection near the center. The current intensity estimate is 30 kt, although this may be generous. Since the center should remain over land into Friday morning, some additional weakening could occur during the next 12-24 hours. A re-intensification trend is expected to commence in 36 hours, assuming that the center moves back into the Gulf of Mexico by then. As noted earlier, the atmospheric environment over the Gulf is not particularly conducive for strengthening, with moderate southwesterly shear and some mid-level dry air. There are a number of arc clouds noted in satellite images over the Gulf at this time, which is indicative of drier air at mid-levels. As in the earlier advisories, the NHC intensity forecast is higher than the model consensus. Due to the limitations in tropical cyclone intensity prediction, there is some uncertainty in the strength of Cristobal when it reaches the northern Gulf coast. The system is turning to the left as it executes a partial cyclonic loop within a broad gyre. Beginning tomorrow night, Cristobal should head northward over the Gulf into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. There has not been much change in the official track forecast, which follows the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus. The ECMWF model does show a little more shift to the left in 3-4 days which is also reflected in the NHC track. This should not be considered as a significant change, however, especially for a broad cyclone such as this one. The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand as the cyclone moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and this is reflected in the official wind radii forecast. This suggests that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf coast, the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the center. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be issued tonight or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.5N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.4N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 21.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/0600Z 25.6N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/1800Z 27.5N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/1800Z 31.0N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-06-04 16:45:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 920 WTNT43 KNHC 041445 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 With the center remaining inland, Cristobal has continued to weaken, and the cloud pattern is becoming disorganized. The current intensity is reduced to 30 kt for this advisory, and the warnings for the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico have been discontinued. Assuming that the center will emerge over the Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours, re-intensification should begin by tomorrow evening. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is not expected to be very conducive for intensification, with moderate southwesterly shear and some dry mid-level air. Not surprisingly, the intensity guidance, such as HWRF and LGEM, are not very bullish on strengthening. The official forecast remains a little above the latest intensity model consensus. It should still be noted, however, that there is some uncertainty as to the strength of Cristobal when it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast due to the limitations of forecasting tropical cyclone intensity change. The cyclone continues to move slowly east-southeastward, or 120/3 kt. Over the next day or so, Cristobal is likely to move along a partial cyclonic loop while embedded within a broader gyre. By tomorrow night, the system should have begun moving northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This generally northward motion should continue until the center crosses the northern Gulf coast. There have been no important changes to the NHC track forecast, which is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus aids. The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have again been increased primarily over the eastern semicircle at 36-72 hours. Indeed, the models suggest that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf coast, the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the center. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be issued tonight or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.6N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 05/0000Z 17.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1200Z 19.0N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 21.0N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 06/1200Z 22.9N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/0000Z 24.7N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/1200Z 26.7N 90.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/1200Z 30.8N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 35.0N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-06-04 10:44:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040844 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 Satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico indicate that Cristobal has resumed a southeastward drift and moved farther inland. There is no data from near the core of the storm, so the maximum intensity is set to a possibly generous 35 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory and earlier scatterometer data that showed 35 kt winds over water to the northwest of the center. The initial motion is a drifting 125/2 kt. A slow eastward motion is expected today. After that, southerly flow associated with a strengthening ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing mid-/upper-level trough over northern Gulf of Mexico should turn Cristobal northward with some increase in forward speed. Later in the forecast period, a north-northwestward or northward motion is expected as Cristobal interacts with the trough, with most of the track forecast guidance bringing the system to the northern Gulf coast between 96-120 h. The new forecast track has no significant changes from the previous track, and it lies near the various consensus models. Cristobal should weaken to a depression in the next few hours as the center drifts farther inland. Little subsequent change in strength is likely through 24 h due to much of the circulation remaining over water. By 36 h, the global model guidance suggest that winds will increase over the Gulf of Mexico well northeast of the center, so the new intensity forecast calls for Cristobal to regain tropical storm status at that time. From 48-120 h, Cristobal is forecast to interact with the trough over the Gulf of Mexico, which is likely to cause dry air entrainment and some shear. The intensity guidance suggests these conditions will allow only gradual intensification, so the new forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in showing a peak intensity of 50 kt before landfall on the northern Gulf coast. The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have again been increased primarily over the eastern semicircle at 36-72 hours. Indeed, the models suggest that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf coast the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the center. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Even though Cristobal is inland, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico for a few more hours, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states. 3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 17.9N 91.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/1800Z 18.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0600Z 18.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1800Z 20.2N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0600Z 22.1N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/1800Z 23.9N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 25.8N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-06-04 04:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040239 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 Geostationary satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, indicate that Cristobal has moved very little since the previous advisory, and that the convective structure of the cyclone remains fairly well-organized with several bands wrapping around the circulation. The center is still located just south of Ciudad del Carmen, and the observing site at that location reported a pressure of around 995 mb earlier this evening. The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt, assuming some reduction in wind speed has taken place. Additional gradual weakening is expected during the next day or so while the center moves slowly inland over eastern Mexico. Cristobal is expected to emerge over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Friday and some re-intensification is forecast to occur. After that time, some additional strengthening is forecast while Cristobal moves northward toward the northern Gulf coast, but the overall environment is not expected to be particularly conducive for intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly lower peak intensity than the previous advisory, and it is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Although Cristobal has been nearly stationary over the past several hours, a slow southeastward or eastward motion should commence overnight. Increasing southerly flow around a strengthening ridge over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to begin moving northward on Friday, and a northward or north-northwestward motion should continue through Saturday with Cristobal approaching the northern Gulf coast by later in the weekend. The new NHC track forecast is again very similar to the previous NHC advisory and is close to the various consensus models. The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have been increased primarily over the eastern semicircle at 48 through 72 hours. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday morning, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states. 3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 18.3N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 18.0N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0000Z 18.4N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1200Z 19.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z 21.3N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/1200Z 23.1N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 24.9N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 28.8N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 32.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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