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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-06-03 22:39:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 032039 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 Cristobal continues to move over land and is passing a short distance south of Ciudad del Carmen, where tropical storm force winds, at least in gusts, have been reported. The current intensity estimate assumes only a very slow weakening rate and maximum winds are set at 45 kt for this advisory. Since the system has a large circulation, the weakening should continue to be at a slow rate and the cyclone is expected to become a tropical depression by late Thursday. Once the center re-emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, which is forecast to happen on Friday, re-intensification should begin. However, the model guidance currently suggests that the atmospheric environment over the Gulf will not be very conducive for strengthening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but is at the high end of the guidance suite. As has been noted, however, there is significant uncertainty as to how strong Cristobal will be when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. This is due to the limitations of predicting tropical cyclone intensity change. The storm continues to move southeastward quite slowly, or 135/3 kt. Cristobal should move in a partial cyclonic loop, and remain over land, while embedded within a broad gyre over Central America and eastern Mexico. Later in the forecast period, an increase in southerly flow is likely to cause the system to move back over water and approach the northern Gulf coast this weekend. The official track forecast follows the dynamical model consensus TVCA. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states. 3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 18.3N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.0N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1800Z 18.3N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0600Z 19.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1800Z 20.3N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1800Z 24.0N 90.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/1800Z 31.7N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 8

2020-06-03 16:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 031455 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and imagery from the Sabancuy radar in Mexico indicate that the center of Cristobal made landfall in the state of Campeche just to the west of Ciudad del Carmen around 1330 UTC. Data from the aircraft and earlier surface reports indicate that the landfall intensity was about 50 kt. Now that the center of circulation has moved inland, a gradual weakening trend should commence. However, the large circulation will take some time to spin down. It is anticipated that Cristobal will weaken to a depression by tomorrow evening. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico so some re-strengthening is predicted. However, the global models show increased southwesterly shear influencing the cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this should limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest LGEM and HCCA guidance. However, there is significant uncertainty as to how strong a cyclone we will be dealing with near the northern Gulf coast this weekend. The storm has been moving slowly south-southeastward, or 150/3 kt. Over the next couple of days, Cristobal should move slowly in a cyclonic loop while embedded within a broader gyre over Central America and eastern Mexico. Then, the cyclone should turn northward into a weakness in the mid-level flow over the Gulf of Mexico, and approach the northern Gulf coast within 4 days. The official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states. 3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 18.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1200Z 18.1N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0000Z 18.9N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1200Z 20.0N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/0000Z 21.5N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1200Z 23.5N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/1200Z 31.0N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-06-03 10:47:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 030847 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 Cristobal has continued to get better organized this morning with the development of a small CDO feature over the low-level center, with cloud tops of -82C to -86C developing very near the center. Radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, also has shown an improvement in the central convective features, along with an increase in convective banding on the west side of the circulation, which previously had been devoid of any significant convection. Reports from nearby Mexican observations indicate that winds of 47-48 kt exist west of the center, which supports an intensity of 50 kt. The same observations support a minimum pressure of 994 mb. The aforementioned surface observation data and radar imagery indicate that Cristobal is now moving southeastward or 140/03 kt. There could be some erratic motion this morning due to land interaction with the inner-core wind field, but the general motion should remain southeastward toward the coast of Mexico. By this afternoon, a turn toward the east is expected, driving the cyclone inland over southeastern Mexico where it could meander for the next day or two. By 48 hours, the global and regional models are in good agreement on the development of a long fetch of southerly flow on the east side of Cristobal between the cyclone's center and a ridge over the Bahamas and Hispaniola, which will act to lift the tropical storm slowly northward toward the south-central Gulf of Mexico. By 72 hours and beyond, mid-latitude ridging amplifies over the southeastern U.S. and the Bahamas, which will increase the southerly steering flow, causing Cristobal to accelerate northward on day 4 over the central Gulf, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on day 5 near the south-central U.S. Gulf coast. The models are in very good agreement on this overall developing scenario, with only timing differences on when and how fast the cyclone will lift out away from Mexico. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN and NOAA-HCCA. Some additional slight strengthening remains possible this morning before Cristobal moves inland over southeastern Mexico. Weakening is likely this afternoon and tonight while the circulation after landfall. The intensity forecast leans heavily on just how far inland Cristobal moves. For now, the cyclone is expected to remain relatively close to the warm Gulf waters, which should temper the rate of weakening typically experienced by inland tropical cyclones. But if Cristobal moves as far inland as Guatemala like the ECMWF and GFS models are forecasting, the cyclone would be considerably weaker and the wind field more expansive on days 3-5. The official intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 18.9N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 18.5N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0600Z 18.3N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0600Z 19.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 05/1800Z 20.5N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 22.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 26.3N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 29.8N 91.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-06-03 04:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 030238 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 Cristobal has become a little better organized this evening. There has there has been an increase in convective banding near and to the east of the center in both satellite and radar imagery. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that investigated the storm this evening found peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and peak SFMR winds of 45-47 kt. An automated Mexican weather station on an elevated offshore platform has measured slightly stronger winds than the SFMR, but a blend of these data support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 996 mb on its final pass through the center. Recent aircraft and satellite fixes show that Cristobal has been meandering for much of the day, with perhaps a south or southeast drift evident. The storm is expected to move slowly southward or southeastward as it remains within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern Mexico. This motion should bring the center onshore over the southern Bay of Campeche coast later tonight or on Wednesday. After landfall, Cristobal is forecast to continue to move very slowly toward the east or southeast through early Thursday. After that time, increasing southerly flow should allow the storm to begin moving northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. There has been a slight eastward adjustment in the early portion of the track forecast due to a slightly more eastward initial position, but after 36 h very little change to the previous forecast was required. The new NHC track forecast is again near the various consensus aids and is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Although there is less spread in the track guidance this cycle, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at 72 h and beyond due to the expected land interaction within the next day or so, and a potential for center reformations as the system re-organizes in 2-3 days. Some additional strengthening is possible overnight before Cristobal reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is likely on Wednesday and Wednesday night while the circulation encounters land. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, environmental conditions are expected to support re-intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the HWRF model and is a bit less aggressive than the statistical guidance or the HFIP-corrected consensus model since there is uncertainly regarding structure of the system after it interacts with land. Key Messages: 1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological service for more information. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.1N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.7N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1200Z 18.3N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 18.8N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1200Z 19.6N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/0000Z 21.2N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0000Z 25.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/0000Z 29.0N 91.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-06-02 22:39:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 022039 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 Observations from the Hurricane Hunters around midday indicated winds to tropical storm force over the southwestern quadrant, so the cyclone was named. Since that time, scatterometer data suggested that the wind field has become a little more symmetrical. The current intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is a little above the subjective Dvorak estimates. Some strengthening could occur overnight since the cyclone is in a conducive atmospheric and oceanic environment. However, it now seems likely that the system will make landfall over eastern Mexico on Wednesday which should cause weakening. Assuming that the center emerges over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week, some re-intensification is forecast. However, stronger shear over the northern Gulf should limit the increase in strength. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance. Satellite and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone is moving slowly southward, or around 170/3 kt. The system appears to be rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern Mexico. The global models show that Cristobal will be trapped between two high pressure areas and have little overall movement for the next few days. However, the slow, cyclonically looping movement of the cyclone should take the center over eastern Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Later in the week, increasing southerly flow should steer the system northward over the Gulf of Mexico and near the northern Gulf coast by the weekend. The official track forecast lies near the latest dynamical model consensus, and is roughly in the middle of the track guidance suite. Given the spread in this guidance, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in the NHC forecast at days 4-5. Key Messages: 1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological service for more information. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 19.1N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.8N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 18.4N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0600Z 18.2N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0600Z 19.1N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 05/1800Z 20.4N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 06/1800Z 23.7N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch

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