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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-11-16 12:46:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161146 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 Corrected time zone in header. Deep convection associated with the small low pressure area located well south of the coast of Mexico has continued to increase and become better organized overnight. ASCAT data from 03-04Z indicated that the circulation was well-defined and there were believable 30 kt wind vectors. The ASCAT revealed a few higher wind vectors, but they may have been rain contaminated. Based on these data and a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 from TAFB, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression. The intensity forecast for this system is a bit tricky as small systems such as this can spin up or down quite quickly. In the short-term, a dry and more stable air from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event could be entrained into the northern portion of the circulation today, which could cause a disruption in the deep convection and/or an elongation of the circulation. However, if the small cyclone remains south of the main area of Tehuantepec winds, low vertical wind shear conditions favor some intensification. The NHC intensity forecast leans on the latter scenario and call for some strengthening during the next 24 hours or so. After that time, increasing southerly shear is expected to cause weakening, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The intensity is more uncertain than normal, but is fairly close to the intensity consensus aids. The depression is moving westward or 270/10 kt. The track forecast is a bit more straightforward as the cyclone should be steered generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge located over southern Mexico during the next couple of days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to near the southwestern portion of the ridge and a west-northwestward heading is predicted. The global models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track follows a blend of the various global model predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 9.2N 99.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 9.0N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 8.9N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 9.0N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 9.4N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 10.1N 106.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 10.5N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-11-16 09:50:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160849 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 400 AM CDT Sat Nov 16 2019 Deep convection associated with the small low pressure area located well south of the coast of Mexico has continued to increase and become better organized overnight. ASCAT data from 03-04Z indicated that the circulation was well-defined and there were believable 30 kt wind vectors. The ASCAT revealed a few higher wind vectors, but they may have been rain contaminated. Based on these data and a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 from TAFB, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression. The intensity forecast for this system is a bit tricky as small systems such as this can spin up or down quite quickly. In the short-term, a dry and more stable air from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event could be entrained into the northern portion of the circulation today, which could cause a disruption in the deep convection and/or an elongation of the circulation. However, if the small cyclone remains south of the main area of Tehuantepec winds, low vertical wind shear conditions favor some intensification. The NHC intensity forecast leans on the latter scenario and call for some strengthening during the next 24 hours or so. After that time, increasing southerly shear is expected to cause weakening, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The intensity is more uncertain than normal, but is fairly close to the intensity consensus aids. The depression is moving westward or 270/10 kt. The track forecast is a bit more straightforward as the cyclone should be steered generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge located over southern Mexico during the next couple of days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to near the southwestern portion of the ridge and a west-northwestward heading is predicted. The global models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track follows a blend of the various global model predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 9.2N 99.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 9.0N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 8.9N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 9.0N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 9.4N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 10.1N 106.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 10.5N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-11-16 09:45:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160845 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 Infrared satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data show that the center of Raymond has become exposed to the west of the main convective mass. The ASCAT-B instrument revealed 35-40 kt winds to the northeast of the center, but it likely missed the area of strongest winds. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt, which is in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak CI number. The window of opportunity for Raymond to strengthen appears to be closing as west-southwesterly shear is already increasing over the cyclone. The shear is forecast to increase to more than 25 kt later today, and Raymond should begin to weaken by tonight. The SHIPS model indicates that the shear will become very belligerent in 36 to 48 hours when the cyclone approaches a cut off low to the west of the Baja peninsula. Raymond is forecast to weaken to a depression within a couple of days when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and should degenerate into a remnant low shortly thereafter. The cyclone is likely to dissipate within 3 days, however a 72-h forecast position is provided for continuity. Raymond jogged west-northwestward earlier this evening, but it is expected to resume a north-northwestward heading very soon. A turn to the north should occur later today, and a north to north- northeastward motion is predicted tonight and Sunday as the cyclone is steered between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge to the southeast. Once Raymond weakens, it is expected to turn northwestward within the low-level steering flow. The more westward initial position of Raymond has required a westward adjustment of the track but the new official forecast is again close to the center of the guidance envelope. Regardless of the cyclone's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the system will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.7N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.1N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 21.2N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 23.3N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 26.8N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-11-16 03:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 161 WTPZ45 KNHC 160235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 Raymond has changed little in organization over the past several hours, with bursts of deep convection continuing mainly over the eastern semicircle. A pair of recent microwave overpasses confirm that westerly shear continues to impact the cyclone, disrupting the inner-core from getting well established. The initial intensity is kept at 45 kt for this advisory and is in agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. The moderate shear over the cyclone is forecast to continue through tonight while the storm remains in a moist environment and over warm water. These conditions will likely help to continue these large bursts of convection, and as a result some slight strengthening is expected to occur. On Saturday, a strong mid- to upper- level trough is forecast to dig southeastward to the west of Baja California. This will bring a steady increase in southwesterly shear across Raymond, with the shear values possibly approaching 50 kt by 48 hours. As a result, Raymond should begin to weaken by late Saturday. One uncertainty in the intensity forecast is whether or not Raymond will bring tropical-storm-force winds to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The official forecast calls for Raymond to be a weakening 35 kt tropical storm as it approaches, but these winds may be to the east of the peninsula. Subsequently, Raymond is expected to become a remnant low due to the shear. Forecast guidance is in good agreement on the above scenario, with some variations in timing. Regardless of the cyclone's status, rainfall associated with Raymond will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. Raymond is now moving north-northwest at 9 kt around a mid-level ridge to the east of the cyclone. A turn to the north then perhaps north-northeast is expected Saturday and Saturday night as the system rounds the northwestern periphery of the ridge and becomes under the influence of the southwesterly winds associated with the approaching trough. Once the system loses its deep convection in a few days, it should turn to the northwest in the low-level flow. The latest official forecast is near the previous one and the clustered consensus track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.4N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.6N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.3N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 20.3N 109.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 22.4N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 26.0N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-11-15 21:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 Raymond continues to move toward the north-northwest several hundred miles south of the Baja California peninsula. ASCAT-B data at 1624 UTC showed that Raymond's circulation has become a little better defined with maximum winds of 35-40 kt. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on that data, assuming that the ASCAT slightly under-sampled the strongest winds. The tropical storm is in a moderate shear environment which will likely limit its development potential. Most of the intensity guidance indicates that some slight strengthening is possible today, but a general weakening trend should begin by late Saturday. Raymond is forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 h, but several of the dynamical models now suggest that the cyclone will still have tropical characteristics when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. That said, there is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding Raymond's structure when, or if, it reaches the coast of the peninsula. Regardless of the cyclone's status, rainfall associated with Raymond will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. Raymond should continue moving generally north-northwestward through tonight. A turn to the north is forecast on Saturday as Raymond moves between a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough located off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance has converged on top of the previous NHC forecast track and virtually no change was made to the official forecast, which lies between the corrected consensus aids HCCA and FSSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 14.7N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.6N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.2N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 21.0N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 25.1N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Mello
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