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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 16

2019-08-25 04:39:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250239 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Deep convection associated with Ivo has quickly waned this evening. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft that flew into the storm this afternoon found SFMR winds that suggested that the cyclone may have been slightly stronger than previously estimated. However, with the degradation in organization since that time, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt for this advisory. Ivo has moved north of the 26C isotherm and is heading toward even colder waters and a more stable environment. Thus weakening should occur overnight, and Ivo is forecast to become a tropical depression within 12 hours and to degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night. The initial motion is 335/8 kt. Ivo continues moving north- northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The cyclone should decelerate and turn northward on Sunday as it weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level steering flow. The persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days has generated swells that are now reaching portions of the coasts of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells are likely to cause rip currents. See products from your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 23.4N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 24.7N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 26.7N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 27.0N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-08-24 22:52:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 242052 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 Visible and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that the inner-core of the small cyclone has noticeably improved since the previous advisory. A 1705Z AMSR-2 overpass showed the development of tightly curved bands and a 10 mile wide eye-like feature. In addition, a 1935Z SSMI/S microwave pass revealed a tightly curved band in 91 GHz data that wrapped almost 75 percent around the center. Based on the much improved inner-core structure and 33-kt wind vectors in an earlier ASCAT-B pass, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Dorian on this advisory. Upper-level outflow has been improving to the northwest, but remains slightly restricted to the southeast due to some modest southeasterly vertical wind shear. The initial motion is 280/11 kt. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement that Dorian will generally move west-northwestward for the next 5 days around the southern periphery of the sprawling Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge that is located to the north of the Lesser and Greater Antilles. This motion is expected to bring Dorian through the central or northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, possibly as a hurricane, and then into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. The official forecast track was shifted slightly north of the previous advisory track, and is close to the consensus model TVCN, which remains north of the NOAA HCCA corrected-consensus model. The moderate to strong vertical wind shear that has been hindering development of this system for the past several days is forecast to diminish significantly during the next 12 h, and remain near 5 kt through Tuesday. The low shear conditions, along with warm SSTs and the significantly improved small, inner-core structure, should allow for at least slow but steady strengthening despite the abundance of dry mid-level air nearby. However, the low vertical wind shear and tight inner-core wind field are also harbingers of possible rapid intensification. For now, the new intensity forecast remains conservative and similar to the previous advisory, and is above all of the available intensity guidance, including the HWRF model. Key Messages: 1. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. 2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of impacts in the Lesser Antilles, but tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the area on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 10.7N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 11.0N 50.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 11.4N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 11.9N 54.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 12.7N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 14.6N 61.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 16.5N 65.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 18.4N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 15

2019-08-24 22:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 242046 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Although the storm continues to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, Ivo continues to produce deep convection in a band over the southern semicircle. A combination of satellite intensity estimates and recent ASCAT-C data suggest that the maximum winds remain near 35 kt, and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying a research mission just reported a central pressure of 1000 mb. The cyclone should continue to move over cooler sea surface temperatures, and thus weakening is expected. The new intensity forecast again follows the guidance and the previous forecast in calling for Ivo to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to dissipate completely by 72 h. The initial motion is 335/7. The subtropical ridge to the east should steer Ivo generally north-northwestward for the next day or so. After that, the cyclone is likely to slow its forward motion and turn northward as the low-level flow becomes the dominate steering mechanism. The new official forecast track is again similar to the previous track through 24 h, and after that it is shifted slightly to the east of the previous track. The persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days has generated high swells that are now reaching portions of the southern Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 22.3N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 23.7N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 25.2N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 26.3N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 26.8N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-08-24 16:57:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 241457 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 The small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past several days across the tropical Atlantic Ocean has acquired enough deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression, the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2019 hurricane season. Two ASCAT passes between 1200-1300Z this morning indicated that the system had a closed circulation and surface winds of at least 30 kt, and that is the intensity set for this advisory. Upper-level outflow is fair to the northwest and restricted to the southeast due to moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The NHC model guidance is in very good agreement that the cyclone will move in a general west-northwestward direction along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 5 days, bring the system through the central or northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. The official forecast track is close to the consensus model TVCN, which is a little north of the NOAA HCCA corrected-consensus model. The small cyclone is currently experiencing easterly to southeasterly shear of about 15 kt. The shear is forecast to steadily decrease over the next 24 h and be around 5 kt in the 24-to-72-hour time period. Although the depression is expected to remain embedded in a fairly dry mid-level environment, the small overall circulation, small radius of maximum winds, low shear regime, and warm SSTs of 28.0-28.5 deg C should allow for slow but steady intensification through the 5-day period despite occasional intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models, and the more robust HWRF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 10.4N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 10.7N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 11.0N 51.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 11.4N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 12.0N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 13.6N 59.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 15.2N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 17.1N 66.7W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 14

2019-08-24 16:53:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 513 WTPZ45 KNHC 241453 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Deep convection associated with Ivo has made a comeback during the past several hours, with a large convective mass now near the center over the western semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little more since the last advisory, and the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly conservative 35 kt. The cyclone is moving steadily over cooler sea surface temperatures and continued weakening is expected. The new intensity forecast therefore follows the guidance and the previous forecast in calling for Ivo to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to dissipate completely by 72 h. The initial motion is 330/8. The subtropical ridge to the east should steer Ivo generally north-northwestward for the next couple of days, with some decrease in forward speed before the system dissipates. The new official forecast track is again similar to the previous track. Due to the persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days, high swells continue to propagate northeastward toward portions of the southern Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 21.8N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 23.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 26.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 26.8N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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