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Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-08-24 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240234 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 Chantal has not produced organized deep convection since early this morning and is now a remnant low. Recent ASCAT data indicate that the maximum winds associated with the cyclone remain near 25 kt. The remnant low is forecast to gradually spin down during the next couple of days while it slowly makes a small clockwise loop over the central North Atlantic. By Monday, the low will likely become poorly defined and dissipate. This is the last NHC advisory on Chantal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 35.6N 40.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 24/1200Z 35.1N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/0000Z 34.9N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1200Z 35.4N 43.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 35.9N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-08-23 22:39:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232039 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The satellite appearance of Ivo has changed little today, with northeasterly shear confining the deep convection to the southwestern semicircle of the cyclone's circulation. Although recent ASCAT data suggests that the peak winds may have decreased, the initial intensity is conservatively maintained at 55 kt, based on the earlier wind report from Clarion Island. Ivo's initial motion is 335/09 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for at least the next 48 hours as the cyclone is steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. Once the cyclone weakens and becomes a shallow system in a couple of days, the forward motion should decrease and a turn to the northeast should occur, as the circulation becomes steered by the low level flow. The official forecast track is very close to the previous one and is near the various consensus model solutions. Although guidance suggests the wind shear will decrease over Ivo starting in about 12 hours, the cyclone is beginning to move over progressively cooler waters. This should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken over the next couple of days. By Sunday afternoon, Ivo will be over SSTs of about 22 C and in a more stable airmass. This should cause the cyclone to become devoid of deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low around that time. The latest forecast is an update of the previous one and in agreement with the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 19.7N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 20.9N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 22.4N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 24.1N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 25.8N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 28.7N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-08-23 22:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 589 WTNT44 KNHC 232034 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 Chantal is now producing only isolated showers and thunderstorms, and the low-level circulation is gradually becoming less well defined. The depression should decay to a remnant low during the next several hours. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by 72 h, which again is unchanged from the previous forecast. The initial motion is now 170/6. Chantal or its remnants should turn southwest and west during the next 24-48 hours as the subtropical ridge re-forms north and east of the system. After that, a slow motion toward the northwest is expected before the system dissipates completely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 36.0N 40.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 35.5N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1800Z 35.3N 42.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0600Z 35.4N 43.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z 35.7N 44.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-08-23 18:05:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231605 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Special Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 An observation at 1430 UTC from Clarion Island, Mexico, indicated sustained winds of 53 kt and a wind gust to 66 kt on that island. Based on this data, a special advisory is being issued with the initial intensity increased to 55 kt. There has been a slight upward adjustment of the forecast intensity through 24 hours to account for the initial wind speed. However, the remainder of the forecast reasoning remains unchanged, and no changes were made to the track for this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1600Z 18.9N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.0N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 23.1N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 24.6N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Blake
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-08-23 17:05:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 231504 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 Chantal is currently producing only small bursts of convection over the northern semicircle, and visible satellite imagery suggests that the low-level circulation is becoming less well defined. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on current satellite intensity estimates, but it is possible this is a little generous. A combination of dry air and large-scale subsidence is expected to prevent the return of persistent deep convection, and if current trends continue Chantal could degenerate to a remnant low later today or tonight. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by 72 h, which is unchanged from the previous forecast. The initial motion is now 155/6. There is little change to either the forecast philosophy or the forecast track from the previous advisory. The cyclone is embedded in the subtropical ridge, and the core of the ridge is forecast to shift from southwest to northeast of Chantal during the next couple of days. This evolution should cause Chantal or its remnants to make a clockwise half loop before the system dissipates. Like its predecessor, the new forecast track lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 36.6N 40.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 35.8N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 35.3N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 35.3N 43.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 35.5N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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