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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-08-22 22:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 222032 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal is still producing deep convection to the east of the exposed low-level center. The initial intensity will be held at 30 kt based on a combination of earlier scatterometer data and current satellite intensity estimates. While the cyclone continues to move toward warmer sea surface temperatures and into an area of decreasing vertical wind shear, abundant dry air and increasing upper-level convergence should cause the associated convection to dissipate in 24 h or so. There is no change to the previous intensity forecast, and Chantal is expected to decay to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipated completely by 96 h. The initial motion is now 110/12. A building low- to mid-level ridge is separating Chantal from the mid-latitude westerlies, and this should leave the cyclone in an area of weak steering currents. The track guidance continues to forecast a clockwise loop before the cyclone dissipates, and the new official forecast track is basically an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 38.1N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 36.3N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 35.5N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 37.0N 42.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-08-22 16:41:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 221434 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal continues to produce an area of deep convection just northeast of the mostly exposed low-level center. Recent scatterometer data shows winds near 30 kt to the southeast east of the center, and the initial intensity is again held at 30 kt. The cyclone is moving toward warmer sea surface temperatures and into an area of decreasing vertical wind shear. However, abundant dry air and increasing upper-level convergence should cause the system's convection to dissipate in 24 h or so. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for the cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipating completely by 96 h. The initial motion is 100/15 as Chantal is moving along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. A low- to mid-level ridge to the south is expected to build northward between the depression and the westerlies, leaving Chantal in weak steering flow and causing it to make a slow clockwise loop before it dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is similar to, but slightly north of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 38.8N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 38.0N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 36.9N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 36.1N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 35.7N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 36.6N 42.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-08-22 16:41:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 377 WTPZ45 KNHC 221440 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 The cyclone continues to gradually improve in organization. Microwave data show that there is a small eye trying to form beneath Ivo's small central dense overcast, and satellite intensity estimates are rising. Consequently, the initial wind speed is set to 55 kt, which matches the TAFB/SAB fixes. Further strengthening is anticipated in the short term since Ivo has a developing inner core and is over very warm waters with moderate shear. The models are pretty consistent about showing an increase in shear by tomorrow while the cyclone turns to the northwest. Thus the intensity forecast is leveled off at that time, then a slow weakening is shown beyond 36 h as Ivo begins its inevitable decline over cooler eastern Pacific waters and in more stable air. Remnant low status is anticipated just after 72 h since Ivo will be over 23C or cooler waters by then. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast except for a small rise at 12 h to account for the recent initial intensity increase. Similar to many eastern Pacific cyclones this year, the center has re-formed a bit to the south in the central dense overcast, yielding an initial motion of 270/10. The storm should turn northwestward tomorrow due to an upper-level trough dropping over the eastern Pacific south of California, which helps erode a mid-level ridge over mainland Mexico. The ridge stays weak through the weekend, causing Ivo to move north-northwestward until dissipation. The eastward model trend at long range continues, so the NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction. It should be noted that none of the guidance still show a direct threat to Mexico at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.7N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 16.4N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.9N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.5N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 21.2N 117.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 28.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-08-22 10:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 220842 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal has been able to sustain an area of convection just to the east of its low-level center since the last advisory, and final-T numbers are actually back up to a unanimous T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is therefore held at 30 kt. The depression is getting ready to move over a tongue of slightly warmer waters, and vertical shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt in a day or two. However, there is abundant dry air around the system, and upper-level convergence is expected to increase, both of which should extinguish Chantal's organized deep convection in 24-36 hours. The NHC intensity forecast continues to most closely follow the global models, with Chantal expected to become a remnant low on Friday and degenerate into a trough on Sunday. Chantal is moving south of due east and a little slower than before, or 100/15 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the south is expected to build over Chantal in the coming days, leaving the depression in weak steering flow and causing it to make a slow clockwise loop before it dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is mainly an update of the previous one and lies between the ECMWF, HCCA, and the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 39.1N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 36.2N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-08-22 10:42:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220842 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 The cloud pattern associated with Ivo is a little better organized and consists of a circular mass of convection surrounded by a well- defined cyclonically curved band. The center appears to be more embedded under the canopy than several hours ago. Despite the improvement, recent scatterometer data show that the winds have not increased yet and are between 40 and 45 kt. Because the cloud pattern has improved since then, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is the consensus among TAFB, SAB and SATCON estimates. The environment during the next 36 hours should favor Ivo to strengthen a little more and reach hurricane status. Thereafter, Ivo should begin to encounter dry air and cooler waters, resulting in gradual weakening. By day 4, Ivo should be over 20 degree Celsius waters and become a remnant low void of deep convection. The intensity forecast follows very closely the HCCA solution and is a little higher than the consensus. Satellite data suggest that the center of Ivo has either moved a little bit south of due west or it has reformed closer to the convection with a decrease in forward speed. However, an average of the past 6 to 12 hours gives a motion toward the west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. Ivo should be reaching the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge in 12 to 24 hours, and this flow pattern should steer the cyclone more toward the west-northwest and northwest. This general motion should then continue until the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little to the right of the previous one, but it is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope and in between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model average TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 15.8N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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