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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-08-22 04:35:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 049 WTPZ45 KNHC 220235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 An earlier GMI microwave overpass that arrived after the release of the previous advisory revealed a tightly coiled band of convection that wrapped around the southern and southeastern portion of the circulation. More recent microwave imagery, however, shows that the system is being impacted by northeasterly shear with the center now located near the northeast portion of the primary convective mass. Objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates unanimously supported an intensity of 45 kt, and the initial intensity has been increased accordingly. Ivo is expected to remain over warm SSTs and in a moist environment during the next 36 h or so. These conditions favor strengthening however the aforementioned moderate northeasterly shear is likely to temper the rate of intensification during that time. The NHC forecast calls for steady strengthening and again brings Ivo to hurricane status within 36 h. After that time, cooler waters and a drier and more stable air mass should cause weakening, and Ivo is forecast to become post-tropical by day 4. The official intensity forecast shows a peak a little higher than most of the guidance but otherwise is close to the model consensus. Ivo is moving west-northwestward or 285/16 kt. The storm should slow down later tonight or Thursday as it begins to move around the southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge. In about 24 hours, a weakness is expected to develop in the ridge which is expected to cause Ivo to turn northwestward. A general northwestward motion should then continue through the remainder of the forecast period. An additional reduction in forward speed is likely late in the forecast period as the system weakens and becomes vertically shallow. The track guidance as trended toward a slower motion after 72 hours, and the updated NHC track has been adjusted a little southward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 16.1N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 17.6N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 18.8N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 20.0N 116.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 23.2N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 26.4N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 27/0000Z 28.8N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-08-22 04:32:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 220232 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Chantal's cloud pattern has become quite ragged during the past several hours with a shrinking intermittently bursting convective mass remaining sheared to the east of the surface center. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt and is in agreement with a recent 0020 UTC ASCAT-A overpass and the subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. There are no changes to the philosophy of the intensity forecast. Further weakening is forecast through the period as the depression continues moving through an inhibiting, high statically stable surrounding environment. The official forecast calls for Chantal to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night, if not sooner, and is based primarily on the deterministic models. The initial motion is estimated to be east-southeastward, or 105/16 kt, within the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies. Chantal is forecast to turn southeastward to southward, around the eastern periphery of a subtropical high, with a reduction in forward speed, over the next couple of days. By Saturday night, the remnants of Chantal is likely to turn toward the west-northwest as high pressure near the Azores Islands builds to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is a compromise of the TVCA multi-model guidance and the NOAA HFIP corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 39.4N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 38.8N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 37.9N 42.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 36.8N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 35.9N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 35.8N 42.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-08-22 00:03:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212203 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 2...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Corrected storm ID in header block Over the past several hours the cyclone has exhibited an ongoing increase in organization, with a curved band wrapping around the low level center apparent in both satellite imagery and microwave data. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt and this is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Ivo's initial motion is 285/17 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone will continue to steer it to the west-northwest through much of tonight. By Thursday, a weakness is expected to develop to the northwest of the cyclone which will result in a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The cyclone is then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. Ivo will be over warm SSTs near 30C and in a moist environment for the next 48 hours, which should favor intensification. And, although the SHIPS guidance suggests 15 kt of northeasterly shear may be affecting the cyclone, the satellite appearance does not suggest that this shear is having much of impact at this time. Based on the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. By 72 hours, the cyclone will begin to move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while undergoing increasing southwesterly shear. This should cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. The official forecast has been increased slightly from the previous one and is close to the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 15.8N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-08-21 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102014 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Over the past several hours the cyclone has exhibited an ongoing increase in organization, with a curved band wrapping around the low level center apparent in both satellite imagery and microwave data. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt and this is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Ivo's initial motion is 285/17 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone will continue to steer it to the west-northwest through much of tonight. By Thursday, a weakness is expected to develop to the northwest of the cyclone which will result in a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The cyclone is then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. Ivo will be over warm SSTs near 30C and in a moist environment for the next 48 hours, which should favor intensification. And, although the SHIPS guidance suggests 15 kt of northeasterly shear may be affecting the cyclone, the satellite appearance does not suggest that this shear is having much of impact at this time. Based on the favorable environment, steady strengthening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. By 72 hours, the cyclone will begin to move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while undergoing increasing southwesterly shear. This should cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. The official forecast has been increased slightly from the previous one and is close to the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 15.8N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 16.4N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 17.2N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 19.5N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 25.8N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 28.8N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-08-21 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 212033 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Deep convection associated with Chantal has diminished and is confined to some disorganized patches of showers and thunderstorms northeast of the center. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, pending the arrival of new scatterometer data. The cyclone should continue to move through a dry mid- to low-level air mass, with humidities less than 40 percent, during the next few days. This is likely to cause weakening, and it is expected that Chantal will become a tropical depression tomorrow and a remnant low by Friday. Given the current appearance of the system, loss of tropical cyclone status and dissipation are now forecast to occur much sooner than earlier anticipated. This is in good agreement with the latest HWRF model run. The storm is moving just south of east, or 100/17 kt. Little change has been made to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Chantal should follow a clockwise path, around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area, at a slower forward speed over the next few days. In 3-4 days, what is left of the cyclone is likely to turn northwestward to northward. The official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus, TVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 39.8N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 39.4N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 38.5N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 35.4N 42.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z 36.0N 42.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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