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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Forecast Discussion Number 7

2019-08-05 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050236 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 Gil has lacked significant organized deep convection for more than 12 hours. Therefore, the depression has been downgraded to a post-tropical remnant low. Although the system may still produce some sporadic, nonpersistent convection into early Monday, dry and stable air along with strong northwesterly shear will likely prevent any appreciable convection from developing over the next couple of days. This should cause the remnant low to weaken and then open into a trough within the next 24-36 hours. The initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. The remnant low is expected to move westward tonight then west-southwestward on Monday, steered by the low-level environmental flow. This west-southwestward motion should continue until the low dissipates. This is the last advisory on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.1N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 05/1200Z 15.0N 128.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0000Z 14.6N 130.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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Tropical Depression Gil Forecast Discussion Number 6

2019-08-04 22:39:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 042039 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gil Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 Gil has been devoid of deep convection for about 9 hours now, and if convection does return soon, then the system will be declared a post-tropical remnant low on the next advisory. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on a Dvorak T-number of T1.5/25 kt from TAFB and a 25-kt surface wind vector in a recent 1835Z ASCAT-B scatterometer edge pass that caught the northwestern portion of the circulation. Continued weakening is expected after Gil's post-tropical transistion, and the system will likely dissipate by late Monday. The initial motion estimate remains 270/09 kt. Gil is embedded within the easterly trade wind flow, and the cyclone is forecast to maintain a general westward motion until dissipation occurs in 36 hours or so. The official track forecast is just an extension of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 15.0N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.0N 127.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 15.0N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Gil Forecast Discussion Number 5

2019-08-04 16:38:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041437 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gil Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 Shortly after 1200 UTC, Gil lost all of its central deep convection due to strong southwesterly to westerly shear and entrainment of dry air as per GOES-17 mid-level water vapor imagery. The cyclone now consists of a tight swirl of mainly low clouds, with the nearest convection located more than 150 nmi to the east of the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on a Dvorak T-number of T1.5/25 kt. Gil is expected to continue to weaken due to the aforementioned adverse conditions, degenerating into a remnant low later today and dissipating by late Monday. Gil has continued to move westward or 270/09 kt. The shallow cyclone is now embedded within the low-level easterly trade wind flow, and Gil is expected to maintain a general westward motion until dissipation occurs in 36-48 hours. The official track forecast is nearly on top of of the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the consensus model TVCE and the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.9N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1200Z 14.9N 128.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0000Z 14.9N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Gil Forecast Discussion Number 4

2019-08-04 10:42:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040842 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gil Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 Strong northwesterly shear has continued to take a toll on Gil overnight with the low-level center of the cyclone becoming even more exposed. The main convective mass has also decreased in size with a new smaller burst of convection recently developing to the northeast of the center, however satellite imagery shows that the new burst is already beginning to shear away. A recent ASCAT overpass revealed peak winds of around 25 kt, so the initial intensity has been lowered somewhat conservatively to 30 kt. The strong shear over the cyclone is not expected to abate during the next 24 to 36 hours, and this, along with dry mid-level air, should continue to cause Gil to weaken over the next day or so. The global model unanimously show the cyclone degenerating into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours, and so does the updated NHC forecast. Gil is moving westward or 275/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should continue moving generally westward during the next day or so while a low- to mid-level ridge remains to its north. The official track forecast is again close to the previous advisory and the latest HFIP corrected model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.9N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 15.1N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 15.2N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Gil Forecast Discussion Number 3

2019-08-04 04:31:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 Gil remains a strongly sheared tropical cyclone, with the estimated low-level center located near the western edge of a ragged-looking convective mass. Based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB, the intensity estimate remains at 35 kt. The shear is being produced by large upper-level trough that lies near and to the north of the storm, and the dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will persist for the next couple of days. This, along with relatively dry mid-tropospheric air of relative humidities near 50 to 60 percent, should cause Gil to weaken and then dissipate within 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus. The motion is estimated to be westward or 280/10 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge should be maintained to the north of the cyclone over the next few days. This flow pattern should cause a continued westward or slightly south of westward track until dissipation. The official track prediction is very close to the previous NHC forecast and also close to the corrected model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 14.9N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 15.1N 124.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 15.3N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 15.3N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 15.0N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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