Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Tropical Storm Gil Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-08-03 22:33:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 032033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 Scatterometers are providing plenty of surprises today. ASCAT-B data at 1716 UTC showed that the cyclone not only still has a well-defined circulation, but also winds of 30-35 kt northeast of the low-level center. Given that the instrument likely under sampled the strongest winds, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kts, and the system is now designated as Tropical Storm Gil. Despite the slight increase in winds, the long-term prospects for Gil have not improved. The tropical storm is strongly sheared due to an upper-level trough located just to the north, and the GFS and ECMWF forecast that the shear will remain high during the next few days. A marginally dry surrounding environment will also likely limit further strengthening. Given the higher initial winds of Gil, the new NHC forecast carries the cyclone as a low-end tropical storm for about a day, before showing gradual weakening. By 72 h, all of the dynamical guidance indicates that Gil will open into a trough of low pressure, and many of the models suggest it could happen well before that. The initial motion estimate is 285/10 kt. The center position of Gil was adjusted slightly southward since the last advisory and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. That said, there is no change in the reasoning behind the forecast, and low-level easterly flow should cause Gill to move generally westward for the next couple of days at a steady pace. The official forecast closely follows TVCE and HCCA until dissipation is expected after 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 15.0N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 15.2N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 15.5N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 15.6N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 15.5N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-08-03 17:12:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 031512 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 First light visible satellite images indicate that the disturbance over the open eastern Pacific has developed a well-defined center just west of an area of concentrated deep convection. Based on this, advisories have been initiated for Tropical Depression Eight-E. An earlier scatterometer pass measured winds of about 30 kt, and this is the basis for the initial intensity. Vertical shear of 20-25 kt that is currently displacing convection off to the east of the low-level center is forecast to continue for the next few days as the system moves under the base of a mid- to upper-level trough. This shear is expected to prevent any strengthening of the cyclone in the near term. In addition to the shear, the depression will move into a drier airmass and begin to move over more marginal SSTs in about 24 hours. This should result in weakening and the depression is expected to dissipate in a couple of days. Although the depression is currently moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt, all of the global models forecast that it will turn westward later today, steered primarily by low-level easterly winds. The cyclone should then continue westward for the next day or two until it dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 14.7N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 15.4N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 15.7N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 15.9N 126.7W 20 KT 25 MPH 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven/Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 
 

Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 22

2019-08-02 22:38:38| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 02 2019

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 21

2019-08-02 16:54:02| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 02 2019

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 20

2019-08-02 10:45:01| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 01 2019

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [403] [404] [405] [406] [407] [408] [409] [410] [411] [412] [413] [414] [415] [416] [417] [418] [419] [420] [421] [422] next »