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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-08-21 16:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 211451 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the disturbance that has been tracked to the south of Mexico for the past several days has become much better organized since yesterday. An early morning scatterometer pass showed a nearly closed surface low with peak winds of 30 kt. Since that time, the appearance of the disturbance has continued to improve, suggesting that the low has most likely closed at the surface. Based on this data, advisories are being initiated for Tropical Depression 10-E. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest a 30 kt intensity, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The depression's initial motion is 285/16 kt. The cyclone is being steered to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends from northwestern Mexico across much of the eastern Pacific. Model guidance is in good agreement that a weakness will develop in this ridge over the next day or so to the northwest of the depression. This should cause the system to make a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed in about 24 hours. The depression is then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. The cyclone is expected to move over very warm waters of around 30 C, through a moist environment, and with 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear over the next 48 hours. With these conditions, steady strengthening is forecast during that time frame, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and a minimal hurricane in 48 hours. The official forecast is close to the model intensity guidance consensus through 24 hours, and is then on the higher end of the guidance from 24 to 72 hours out of respect for a possible decrease in shear. In a few days the cyclone will move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while undergoing increasing shear. This will cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 15.4N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-08-21 16:43:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 211443 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Chantal has changed little since last night. It remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center exposed to the west of the deep convection. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Although the shear is forecast to gradually diminish, the system should remain in an environment of dry air at the low- to mid-levels for the next several days. This will likely cause weakening, and Chantal is forecast to become a depression within 48 hours and degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and only slightly below the model consensus. The motion continues eastward, or 090/17 kt. Chantal is forecast to turn clockwise and decelerate around the periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the next few days. Later in the period, the cyclone is predicted to drift northward. The official track forecast is close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA, guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 40.2N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 40.0N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 39.2N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 38.1N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 36.9N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 35.5N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 36.0N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z 37.0N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-08-21 10:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 210835 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Chantal has changed little overnight. A small area of deep convection has persisted northeast of the tropical storm's exposed surface center. Given the steady-state structure of the cyclone, the initial intensity has been held at 35 kt based on earlier ASCAT data. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track and intensity forecasts, the most substantial of which is that Chantal is now expected to become a remnant low within 96 h. The tropical storm is surrounded by dry air and will be moving over marginal SSTs for the next couple of days. As a result of this unfavorable environment, Chantal is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by 48 h. Most of the dynamical models indicate that the cyclone will lose all of its convection and become post-tropical soon after, but the official forecast conservatively maintains the system as a tropical cyclone for 72 h. The official intensity forecast is near a consensus of the GFS, HMON, and HWRF models. The tropical storm is moving quickly eastward, but is forecast to slow and turn southeastward by Thursday. It should then turn toward the south on Friday as it moves around the northeast periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the central Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement on the forecast, at least as long as Chantal remains a tropical cyclone. The uncertainty in the track forecast is higher after the cyclone becomes a remnant low, but most of the guidance generally suggests that Chantal will become trapped in weak steering flow and meander over the North Atlantic for a couple days thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 40.3N 53.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 40.2N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 39.6N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 37.2N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 35.3N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 35.5N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z 37.5N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-08-21 04:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 210232 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019 Recent scatterometer wind data and passive microwave satellite images indicate that the small low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring for the past few days has developed a well-defined surface wind circulation and contains tropical-storm-force winds south of the cyclone's center. Therefore, the low has become Tropical Storm Chantal. The initial motion estimate is 085/19 kt. NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement that Chantal will move eastward around the northern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores high and gradually slow down during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone is forecast to drop southward around the eastern portion of the ridge, possibly stalling over warmer waters. The NHC forecast track lies close to the consensus models HCCA and TVCN. Chantal is expected to remain in a moderate southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear regime for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a significant decrease in the shear through 120 h. After 48 hours, the southward motion is also expected to move Chantal over warmer water with SSTs around 27C. However, mid-level moisture is expected to be quite sparse with humidity values forecast to be less than 40 percent based on the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance. Therefore, little or no significant intensification is expected throughout the forecast period, and the official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Although the official forecast calls for Chantal to remain a tropical cyclone through the 120 h, the abundance of dry air that the cyclone will be moving through could result in erosion of the deep convection sooner than currently expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 40.2N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 40.3N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 40.2N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 39.0N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 37.4N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 34.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 34.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 36.0N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Henriette Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-08-13 16:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 131433 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Henriette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019 The system has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours, and therefore, it has degenerated into a remnant low. The post-tropical cyclone is moving through an environment of dry, stable air and over cooler SSTs, which should cause the low to dissipate in a day or so. The motion is west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt. A low-level ridge to the north of the system should steer Henriette's remnants on a west-northwestward to westward heading until dissipation. The official track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, TVCE. This is the last NHC advisory on Henriette. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 21.4N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 14/0000Z 21.8N 117.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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