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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 17

2018-07-01 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012033 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 Deep convection associated with Emilia has decreased in coverage since this morning, and it appears that Emilia is finally well on its way to becoming a remnant low. The initial wind speed is set to 25 kt, which is supported by subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Emilia is currently over SSTs of 24-25 degrees Celsius and is moving into a drier and more stable airmass. As a result, the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight, then continue to spin down and dissipate within 72 hours. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt. A west-northwestward motion should continue for a little longer but the system will likely turn toward the west as it comes under the influence of the easterly low-level tradewind flow. The latest track envelope has shifted slightly northward and the updated NHC track has been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 19.7N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 20.3N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0600Z 22.0N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Fabio Forecast Discussion Number 5

2018-07-01 22:32:54| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018

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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 16

2018-07-01 17:13:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011513 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 16...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 Corrected to add DISSIPATED line at 72H. Somewhat surprisingly, a small area of convection southwest of the center of Emilia has persisted overnight, despite SSTs of around 25C below the cyclone. Although the depression is located within a fairly hostile thermodynamic environment, an upper-level trough to the northwest may be providing enough dynamical support to maintain the convection, at least for now. No recent scatterometer data is available, so the initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone will still likely lose all of its convection and become a remnant low later today or early tomorrow since the upper-level dynamical support should decrease over the next 12 hours or so and it will be moving into a progressively drier environment. The various dynamical models unanimously indicate that Emilia will then steadily spin down before dissipating sometime between 48 and 72 h. The initial motion is still 295/10 kt, and as long as Emilia maintains convection, it will likely remain on this heading. Once the system becomes a remnant low, the low-level tradewind flow will cause it to turn westward until dissipation occurs in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 19.3N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 20.6N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0000Z 21.2N 129.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Fabio Forecast Discussion Number 4

2018-07-01 16:38:17| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018

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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 15

2018-07-01 10:45:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010845 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 Emilia continues to produce a disorganized cluster of convection to the southwest of the center, and so it remains a tropical cyclone for another advisory cycle. Satellite intensity estimates and surface wind data from the Windsat satellite show that the initial intensity is near 25 kt. The convection is expected to dissipate later today, with Emilia becoming a remnant low when that occurs. Final dissipation of the remnants are expected after 72 h. The initial motion remains 295/10. Emilia and its remnants should continue generally west-northwestward for a couple of days before turning more westward in the low-level flow prior to dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 18.9N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0600Z 20.1N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z 20.8N 128.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z 21.5N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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