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Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 3

2018-06-24 16:42:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241441 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 The cyclone has continued to maintain a small mass of deep convection near the center during the past several hours, with the low-level center under the convection. In addition, recent microwave overpasses indicate that the system has developed a small inner core. Based on this and various satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Daniel. The initial motion is now 350/9. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy. The various dynamical models remain in good agreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side of a mid-/upper-level low for the next 12-24 hours, causing the system to move over cooler water and weaken. The resulting more shallow cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast is again an update of the previous track. The forecast track brings the center of Daniel over sea surface temperatures below 26C in less than 24 h, and this should cause weakening even though the storm is in a light shear environment. Thus, the intensity forecast continues the scenario of the previous forecast by indicating a little more strengthening, followed by steady weakening over the cooler water. The latest dynamical models are consistent in showing the system dissipating faster than previously forecast, and the new forecast follows that trend by showing dissipation after 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 16.0N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 17.2N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2018-06-24 10:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240832 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Although convective banding features have become less distinct since the previous advisory, a small mass of deep convection with cold cloud tops of -80C to -83C has developed over and to the south of the previously exposed low-level circulation center. Weak outflow is restricted to the southern semicircle due to modest northeasterly vertical wind shear. The intensity has been maintained at 30 kt based on a consensus satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT. The depression has continued to move northward and the motion estimate is now 355/09 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed around the previous advisory track, so no significant changes were made. The various dynamical models remain in good agreement that the cyclone will move northward around the east side of a mid-/upper-level low for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in the system moving over cooler water and weakening. The more shallow cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast track is just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track models TVCE and HCCA. The SHIPS intensity model guidance is forecasting the vertical shear ahead of the depression to gradually decrease to 5-10 kt during the next 72 hours. However, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26C SSTs in about 24 hours or so, and also be moving into a drier and more stable environment by 36 h and beyond. The result should be only modest strengthening during the next 24 h, followed by steady weakening thereafter. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday, and possibly dissipate by Thursday or Friday. However, a 120-h point was included in order to maintain continuity with the previous advisory. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 15.1N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 16.4N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 19.0N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 19.6N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 20.3N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0600Z 19.7N 130.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2018-06-24 04:35:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240235 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 800 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018 Over the past several hours, the low pressure system located around 115W has developed a well-defined surface circulation. The convective pattern has also improved, with a primary band wrapping around the western semicircle of the cyclone, and a secondary band to the southeast and south. The system has therefore been designated as Tropical Depression Five-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. Although the lack of deep convection in the northeast quadrant suggests that some moderate easterly wind shear and dry air are present, warm SSTs below the cyclone will likely support slight slight strengthening for the next 24 to 36 hours. The depression is forecast to cross a sharp SST gradient and become embedded within a far more stable environment on Monday. This should cause it to lose all deep convection and gradually spin down as a remnant low through the middle of next week. The NHC forecast conservatively shows the system as a tropical cyclone through 72 h, but it could become a remnant low sooner than that. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the intensity consensus IVCN, and the model guidance is in good agreement that only modest strengthening will occur over the next day or two. The depression has been moving generally northward and the initial motion estimate is 355/8 kt. The dynamical models are in good agreement that the shallow cyclone will move continue moving northward for the next 24-36 h, steered by a weak low to mid-level cut-off low to its west. After that time, the weakening system should become increasingly steered by the low-level tradewind flow, causing it to turn toward the around day 4. The official forecast lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and closely follows the track consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.3N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.6N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 17.4N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 18.7N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 19.5N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 20.3N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 20.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z 20.0N 129.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Transcribed Discussion Notes

2018-06-20 23:53:22| PortlandOnline

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 18

2018-06-19 04:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190235 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 A 2239Z SSMI/S microwave image indicated that a small mid-level circulation remained, but Carlotta's low-level circulation was either very small and indistinct, or it was located along the coast of Mexico. For this, the final advisory, it is assumed that the low-level center is beneath the remnant mid-level circulation. The upper-level circulation noted in hi-res GOES-16 visible imagery has continued to move southwestward and decouple from the rest of the circulation, and what little convection that does exist is rather amorphous-looking and disorganized. Based on the disheveled appearance of the system, Carlotta is considered to be a remnant low pressure system with 20-kt winds. The initial motion estimate is 315/03 kt. Steering currents are weak and the shallow nature of the tiny cyclone should prevent Carlotta's remnant circulation from moving inland over the high mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. As a result, the system is forecast to drift northwestward and skirt the coast of Mexico for the next 12-24 hours until dissipation or absorption into the monsoon trough occurs some time on Tuesday. Although there could be some intermittent short-lived bursts of convection, proximity to land, modest northerly vertical wind shear, and dry mid-level air should prevent the remnant low from regenerating into a tropical cyclone. Although Carlotta is no longer a tropical cyclone, an abundance of tropical moisture flowing inland from the Pacific is expected to produce heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima for the next couple of days. Consult products issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information. This is the last advisory on Carlotta issued by the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low... please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 18.2N 103.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 19/1200Z 18.4N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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