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Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 12

2018-06-17 16:35:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 171434 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 The system has become quite disorganized this morning and, even with high-resolution visible satellite images, it is extremely difficult to locate a center. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB continue to decrease and the intensity estimate is lowered to 35 kt kt for this advisory. Hopefully, we will receive data from some upcoming ASCAT scatterometer overpasses in a few hours that will help us better locate the center of circulation. Carlotta is likely to continue to spin down due to the interaction with mountainous terrain and the system should degenerate into a remnant low tomorrow, or sooner. Given the uncertainty in the location, the initial motion estimate, 305/6 kt, is also highly uncertain. The steering currents around Carlotta remain weak, but the cyclone is expected to move slowly northwestward between a couple of mid-level anticyclones. The official forecast is a little to the left of the previous one but still north of most of the track guidance for the first 12 to 24 hours of the forecast. Most of the track models lose the analyzed vortex after that time. It must again be emphasized that, regardless of the exact track of Carlotta, the main threat of heavy rainfall and potential of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides continue over the southern parts of Guerrero and Michoacan. The rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.2N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 17.7N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 18.0N 102.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0000Z 18.3N 102.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 11

2018-06-17 10:40:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 170840 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 The Acapulco Radar from the Mexican Weather Service has been very useful in diagnosis and tracking Carlotta tonight. Now that a portion of the circulation is interacting with land, the radar presentation has deteriorated compared with several hours ago, and the cloud pattern observed on satellite has become shapeless. The cyclone is so tiny than even the ASCAT did not completely identified the cyclone, but at least it measured a few 35-kt wind vectors. None of the global models acknowledge the presence of Carlotta in the analysis. Dvorak T-numbers from al agencies are decreasing, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt. Since the interaction with land is expected to continue, the NHC forecast calls for gradual weakening, and this will occur at a faster rate if the cyclone moves inland within the next 12 to 24 hours as anticipated. Yesterday, the forecast was for Carlotta to move northeastward or northward. The steering currents changed slightly tonight, and instead, the tiny cyclone is now moving toward the northwest at about 6 kt or faster. The limited available guidance suggests that this general motion should continue until dissipation in 36 hours or so. Since the cyclone is not depicted by the global models, the forecast is highly uncertain. Given the northwest track, the Government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning westward along the coast. It must be emphasized that regardless of whether the center moves inland or continues moving along the coast, the main threat of heavy rainfall and potential of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides continue over the southern parts of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. The rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 17.0N 100.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 17.4N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 17.9N 101.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z 18.5N 102.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 10

2018-06-17 04:17:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 170217 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 Carlotta has surprised us this evening. Radar images from Acapulco, Mexico, indicate that the storm has strengthened and its structure has improved significantly. The radar data indicate that Carlotta has a well-defined, but tiny, inner core and the eye has been contracting during the past few hours. In addition, the radar echoes in the eyewall has been getting stronger and more symmetric around the eye. The initial wind speed is set to 55 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Carlotta is very close to the coast of southern Mexico and, in fact, the northern eyewall is partially onshore. Since the storm is expected to interact with land and is forecast to move inland overnight or Sunday morning, it appears unlikely that Carlotta will strengthen much more. Once inland, fast weakening is expected and Carlotta should dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico Sunday night or early Monday. The storm has moved more to the west than previous thought, likely due to the influence of a narrow mid-level ridge to its north. The new forecast is adjusted well to the west of the previous one, and is in fair agreement with the latest consensus models. Regardless of whether the center moves inland, the threat of heavy rainfall and potential of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides continue over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca. The rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.6N 99.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 17.0N 100.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 18/0000Z 17.5N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 18.0N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 9

2018-06-16 22:37:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 162037 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 Satellite imagery and radar images from Acapulco Mexico suggest that there continues to be little change in the organization of the storm. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are also unchanged, so the advisory intensity wind speed remains at 45 kt. Carlotta continues to be affected by some northerly shear associated with an upper-level low over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and no important changes in intensity are anticipated prior to landfall. Carlotta has a small circulation that, after the center crosses the coast, is likely to weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico and dissipate in a day or so. Animation of the radar images and high-resolution GOES16 visible imagery suggest that the center is inching northward, and the initial motion estimate is 360/1 kt. Carlotta remains in an environment of weak steering currents between mid-level high pressure systems. The track forecast reasoning is that the tropical cyclone will move very slowly northward to north-northwestward, between the two highs. All of the global models show Carlotta moving inland soon. The current official forecast is a little left of the previous one and right of the dynamical model consensus, although some of the input models of this consensus lose the analyzed vortex after 12-24 hours. Regardless of whether the center moves inland, the primary expected hazards from Carlotta continue to be heavy rainfall and the associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca. The rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 16.1N 99.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 16.7N 99.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 17.3N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 17.9N 100.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 8

2018-06-16 16:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 161434 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 Satellite images and radar images from Acapulco Mexico indicate that the overall organization of the storm has changed little over the past several hours. The intensity estimate remains at 45 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Water vapor animation indicates that some northerly shear, associated with the flow to the southwest of an upper low over the Gulf of Mexico, is affecting Carlotta. Not much change in strength is anticipated prior to landfall, but we will closely monitor the structure of the tropical cyclone in case some intensification occurs. A center position estimate from a recent 37 GHZ SSMIS image suggests that Carlotta may have shifted slightly to the east. This is also consistent with the winds from a ship observation about 70 n mi south of the estimated center. Overall, however, there has been little motion of the system since last night. Carlotta remains in a region of very weak steering currents with a trough located to the northeast of the tropical cyclone. Most of the global models indicate that the system will move inland or along the coastline within the next day or two. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Carlotta crossing the coastline by Sunday. Regardless of whether the center moves inland, the primary expected hazards from Carlotta continue to be the heavy rainfall and the associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca. The rainfall threat is enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 15.9N 99.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.5N 99.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 17.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0000Z 17.6N 99.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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