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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-06-28 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 280234 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Convection associated with the depression has become a little better organized since the previous advisory as there has been a general increase in banding over the northwestern portion of the circulation. Despite the increase in organization, Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm strength, so the initial intensity will remain 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is currently located within an area of moderate northeasterly shear, however, the shear is forecast to decrease over the next couple of days. During this time, the depression will be traversing warm water and gradual strengthening is anticipated. By the weekend, the system is expected to begin moving over cooler waters and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions which should halt further intensification. Cool water and a more stable air mass should result in weakening later in the period and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by day 5. It should be noted that the 18Z GFS forecasts a significantly stronger cyclone than the remainder of the global models and intensity guidance, and appears to be an outlier. Since the strength of the GFS vortex is used as a predictor in the SHIPS guidance, that intensity model also showed more intensification this cycle. For now, the NHC intensity forecast follows the more conservative LGEM, HWRF, and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance, and is not too different than the previous official forecast. If other models trend toward the GFS solution of a stronger storm, the NHC forecast may need to be adjusted in future advisories. Satellite fixes indicate that the depression continues to move west-northwestward around 13 kt. The cyclone is located to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. This should keep the cyclone on a general west- northwestward heading during the next several days, however the system is forecast to slow down as the ridge weakens by the weekend. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, except for the aforementioned GFS which takes a deeper cyclone farther northward as the ridge weakens. The NHC track forecast is near the various consensus models through 48 hours, but leans more toward the ECMWF and HWRF after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 13.6N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 14.3N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 15.2N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 15.9N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 16.5N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 17.3N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 18.8N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-06-27 22:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 272034 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area south of Manzanillo has become better defined during the day, with ample banding features to the north and west of the center. Thus, this system is declared a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, which is based on an overnight scatterometer pass and a satellite estimate of 30 kt from TAFB. The center has not been particularly easy to track since it hasn't had a lot of continuity. Generally the overall system has been moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt, so that will be the initial motion. A mid-level ridge over Mexico extending westward into the eastern Pacific is expected to steer the depression generally west-northwestward for the next several days, with some gradual decrease in forward speed in a few days due to the ridge weakening. The biggest uncertainty in the model guidance appears to be in the shorter term, with several models indicating a northwestward motion could begin soon. That motion doesn't make sense with the west-to-east orientation of the ridge, so the official forecast is on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the model consensus. Moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to wane over the next few days, which should promote strengthening since the depression is over warm waters. However, this intensification could be tempered by marginal SSTs in 2 or 3 days, and an intrusion of drier mid-level air as suggested by the GFS/ECMWF models. Thus only a moderate amount of strengthening is forecast, and the official forecast is between the SHIPS model and the NOAA corrected consensus HCCA model. In about 4 days, the depression will likely be over rather marginal SSTs with nearby dry air. These conditions will probably kill off any remaining deep convection, causing the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 13.3N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 14.1N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 15.1N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 16.0N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 16.6N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 18.5N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-06-26 16:35:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 261435 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Daniel Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018 Daniel has become a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no associated convection over 23-24C sea surface temperatures, and thus has degenerated to a remnant low pressure area. The remnants of Daniel should move westward for the next 36 h or so before dissipating completely. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Daniel. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 20.0N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 27/0000Z 20.1N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1200Z 20.1N 123.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0000Z 20.0N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-06-26 10:33:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260833 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018 The last bit of convection occurred around 0600 UTC, consisting of cloud tops to -30C to -35C. This allowed TAFB to provide a Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimate of 30 kt. This was enough to still classify Daniel as a tropical depression. Since that time, however, the convection has eroded significantly and cloud tops have warmed to only around -15C. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days as the small cyclone moves over SSTs less than 24C and also ingests more stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds. Degeneration into a remnant low pressure is expected later this morning, with dissipation is forecast by 48 hours. The next advisory could easily be the last forecast required for this system. The shallow cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 7-8 kt. Now that Daniel has become embedded within the low-level easterly trade wind flow, the cyclone and its remnants should move westward at around 10 kt until dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The official foreast track is just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and closely follows the consensus track models HCCA and TCVE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 19.9N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 20.1N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/0600Z 20.1N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 20.0N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-06-26 04:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260234 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 800 PM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018 The depression consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with a small patch of deep convection well to the south of the center. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt in this advisory based on continuity. However, given that the system is over cold waters and devoid of deep convection, the NHC forecast calls for Daniel to become a remnant low on Tuesday. The shallow cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 8 kt embedded within the easterly trade winds. Daniel or its remnants should move toward the west until dissipation in a day or so. Guidance is very consistent with this solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 19.7N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/0000Z 20.2N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1200Z 20.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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