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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 12

2018-06-30 16:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301431 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 Emilia's cloud pattern has degenerated significantly this morning and it now consists of a swirl of low clouds with a small patch of convection well removed from the center. The initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 30 kt, and given that the circulation is already moving over cool waters, additional weakening is forecast. Emilia is expected to become a remnant low later today, although the system could still generate intermittent patches of convection. The initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 10 kt. The depression or its remnants should continue on the same general track steered by the low-level flow until dissipation in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 17.7N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 18.3N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1200Z 19.0N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 21.0N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 11

2018-06-30 10:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300834 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 Emilia has sheared apart during the past several hours, with the low-level center now exposed to the northeast of a diminishing area of deep convection. Recent scatterometer data indicate that the sustained winds have decreased to near 35 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. Emilia should continue to weaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the system is now expected to decay into a remnant low pressure ares between 36-48 h. The initial motion is now 285/8. The low- to mid-level flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge should continue to steer Emilia or its remnants west-northwestward for the next three days or so, followed by a more westward motion before the remnants dissipate. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 17.0N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 17.4N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 18.1N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 18.9N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 20.0N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0600Z 21.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 10

2018-06-30 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300232 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 The cloud pattern has become less organized tonight. The center is even more separated from the main convection than earlier today, while the low-level circulation is becoming somewhat elongated. This is a result of a persistent easterly shear and the effect of cooler waters. Based on the current pattern and the decrease in the Dvorak numbers, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt in this advisory. Emilia could still maintain tropical storm status for a day or so, but given the environmental conditions of shear and cool waters, the NHC forecast calls for weakening and Emilia could become a remnant low in 3 days or even sooner. The initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 at 10 kt. The cyclone should continue to be steered on the same direction for the next few days by the flow south of a subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast is very near the HFIP Corrected consensus HCCA which is in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 16.8N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 17.2N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 17.8N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 19.5N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 21.5N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0000Z 22.2N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 9

2018-06-29 22:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 292032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 Emilia remains a sheared tropical cyclone, as visible satellite images show that the center is located near the northeastern edge of a large mass of deep convection. The center has become a little more exposed this afternoon, but Dvorak Data T-numbers are unchanged from this morning and the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt for this advisory. Although the shear is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours, the cyclone will be moving over gradually decreasing SSTs, so little overall change in strength is anticipated during that time. By late Saturday, Emilia is forecast to cross the 26 degree isotherm and move into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, which should initiate weakening. Dry air and cool waters should accelerate the spin down and Emilia is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in about 72 hours, if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is 295/9 kt. Emilia should continue moving west-northwestward to the south of a low to mid-level ridge. After weakening, a more westward motion is forecast as the system comes under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance remains in good agreement and the updated official foreast is near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.6N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 17.0N 118.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.5N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 19.1N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 21.0N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z 22.1N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1800Z 22.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 8

2018-06-29 16:33:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291433 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 Shortwave infrared imagery and an earlier 0855 UTC AMSR2 polar orbiter pass show deep convective bursts, with associated -78C cloud tops, developing near the surface center. The microwave pass also revealed improved curved banding to the south of the center. Based on these recent cloud pattern trends, it appears as though the east-northeasterly shear is beginning to diminish, as predicted by the SHIPS and LGEM intensity models. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt on this advisory based on a blend of the Dvorak subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier SATCON analysis of 50 kt. Some further strengthening is still possible during the next 24 hours or so as the shear continues to relax. Afterward, decreasing sea surface temperatures and a stabilizing air mass should initiate a weakening trend. A majority of the large-scale models indicate that Emily will degenerate into a remnant low in 4 days, if not sooner. The NHC forecast follows suit and is based on the HCCA and FSU Superensemble intensity consensus forecasts. The initial motion is estimated to be 295/10 kt. Emily continues to be steered by a relatively narrow low to mid-level tropospheric ridge situated to the north. Global and hurricane models continue to remain in good agreement with a general west-northwestward motion until dissipation. The official forecast is slightly to the left of the previous advisory and closely follows the HCCA and TVCN consensus models through day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 16.2N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 16.6N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 17.2N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 17.8N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 18.5N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 20.3N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 21.7N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1200Z 22.7N 134.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

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