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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 17

2018-06-18 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 182035 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 The center of the depression, if it exists, remains very difficult to locate either with geostationary or microwave satellite imagery. In fact, the microwave images suggest that there is no longer a center. Unfortunately, the scatterometer swath missed the estimated location of Carlotta so that was of no help. Given these uncertainties, we will write at least one more advisory on this system, but the next one could be the last. The current intensity is held at 25 kt based on continuity and a Dvorak estimate from SAB. It is anticipated that the small system will dissipate by early tomorrow due to interaction with land. The initial motion is a highly uncertain 315/4 kt. There is little in the way of track guidance available, since most of the models are unable to analyze a center for the tropical cyclone. Carlotta or its remnant should continue to move northwestward to north-northwestward, in a weakness of the subtropical ridge, until dissipation. Heavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. Consult products issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.1N 103.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.5N 103.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 16

2018-06-18 16:40:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 181440 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 Locating Carlotta's center this morning in conventional satellite imagery has been difficult. An earlier 0806 UTC GMI polar orbital microwave pass, however, was helpful in confirming that the system has in fact persisted as a small, relatively symmetric tropical cyclone. A blend of subjective and objective T-numbers supports 25 kt for this advisory. With the assistance of the aforementioned microwave image, the initial motion is estimated to be 310/4 kt, within the weak low- to mid-level flow generated by high pressure to the north. Landfall still appears to be unlikely due to the expected motion parallel to the coastline, but only a slight northward deviation could bring the center of the small cyclone onshore. In any event, dissipation should occur just offshore by Tuesday morning, if not sooner. Heavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. Consult products issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.9N 103.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.1N 103.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 15

2018-06-18 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180836 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 Successive bursts of deep convection have been occurring since last evening, each one to the northwest of the previous one, which likely indicates that Carlotta still has a tight circulation and well-defined center. As such, the cyclone has not yet dissipated nor degenerated into a remnant low. Satellite classifications support maintaining a 25-kt initial intensity. Based on the propagation of convection, Carlotta's center appears to be nearing the coast of Mexico, and the initial motion is northwestward, or 305/4 kt. The depression is entering an area of low-level southerly to westerly winds, which should force its small circulation closer to land. Due to steep coastal mountains, however, the low-level center is unlikely to move inland and should dissipate near the coast. A 12-hour forecast point based on persistence is provided, but Carlotta could dissipate at any time. Each time a pulse of deep convection occurs, it is displaced south of the center due to 10-15 kt of north-northeasterly shear. The shear is not expected to decrease in the short term, which could allow Carlotta to continue as a tropical depression until the circulation is disrupted by the terrain of Mexico and dissipates. Heavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. Consult products issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.7N 102.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 18.1N 103.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 14

2018-06-18 04:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 Visible satellite imagery indicates that Carlotta has maintained a small but robust low-level circulation, with strong convection bursting over and south of the well-defined center. Satellite intensity estimates are T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.3/33 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Based on these data, the intensity is being maintained at 25 kt and Carlotta is still classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 295/04 kt. The recent development of deep convection has likely amplified the vertical circulation, resulting in the forward motion being slightly retarded by the north-northwesterly upper-level winds. However, a stout ridge to the north of the small cyclone should keep the system moving in a general west-northwestward direction just offshore the coast of Mexico for the next day or so. Pulsing convection with tops to near -80C has been occurring since the previous advisory. However, vertical wind shear of around 15 kt along with drier mid-level air coming in off of mainland Mexico are expected to steadily weaken the system, resulting in degeneration into a remnant low on Monday. The main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. These rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Consult products issued by your national meteorological service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 17.2N 102.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 17.4N 102.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 13

2018-06-17 22:35:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 172035 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 Data from a recent scatterometer pass indicated Carlotta still had a small circulation, but that it was quite weak with maximum winds near 25 kt. Persistent northerly shear continues to affect the depression. The system has lacked much organized deep convection for the past several hours and it is likely to degenerate into a remnant low overnight. Accordingly, the official forecast shows the system becoming post-tropical by early Monday. Based on the ASCAT observations, the center has been re-positioned a little to the southeast of the previous track. The initial motion estimate is now 300/6 kt. High pressure to the north of Carlotta should maintain a general west-northwestward track for the next day or two. The main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. These rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Consult products issued by your national meteorological service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 17.1N 101.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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