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Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 7

2018-06-16 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 160836 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018 A surprise during the midnight shift. Tiny Carlotta is stronger and is not moving as anticipated. Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is better organized with a well defined cyclonically curved band wrapping around a small area of convection near the center. T-numbers from TAFB, SAB and UW/CIMSS are unanimously 3.0 on the Dvorak scale. On this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt. ASCAT missed it this time. Depending how long Carlotta remains nearly stationary over water, some additional strengthening could occur. Once it moves inland, if at all, rapid weakening is anticipated. The center is difficult to locate, but it has to be very near the given position, since the cyclone has been meandering during the past several hours. The track forecast is highly uncertain and I mean highly uncertain. Deterministic runs of the global models have failed miserably in forecasting the track of Carlotta, at least in the very short term. In the earlier 00 UTC guidance, most of the NHC trackers moved the cyclone northeastward. However, at 06 UTC, most of the available trackers changed and now move the cyclone toward the west-northwest along the coast of Mexico. This shift in track also includes HCCA and HWRF models. The GFS, ECMWF and UK models quickly dissipate Carlotta, so most of the consensus are not available at 06 UTC. Given the uncertainty in the forecast, the NHC forecast calls for little motion in the next 12 hours, and then a gradual northward track toward the coast within the warning area. Although this is a change from the previous NHC forecast, it is not necessary a change in the warnings. Despite the changes in track tonight, the impacts have not changed. The main threat from Carlotta continues to be the heavy rainfall and the associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca. The significant rainfall threat is enhanced by moist southwesterly flow intersecting the southern Sierra Madre mountains. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 99.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 16.0N 99.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 16.7N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.5N 99.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 6

2018-06-16 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 160232 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Carlotta remains a compact tropical storm with deep convection confined to a region of about 75 n mi from the center. Although the convection is a little stronger than earlier today, the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged at 2.5/35 kt. Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at that value. After moving northward to northeastward throughout the day, Carlotta has now stalled and the latest satellite and radar images indicate that the system is drifting to the southeast. The models insist that a northeastward motion should resume soon, however, and all of the guidance show Carlotta moving inland over southern Mexico by Saturday afternoon. The NHC official track forecast is a little slower than the previous one, due to the initial motion and position, and lies close to the various consensus aids. Carlotta could strengthen slightly before landfall, due to the influences of very warm SSTs and moderate shear, but a quick demise is expected once the system moves inland. Even though a 24-h forecast position is shown below, most of the models dissipate Carlotta by then. The main threat from Carlotta is the heavy rainfall and the associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca. The significant rainfall threat is enhanced by moist southwesterly flow intersecting the southern Sierra Madre mountains. For details, please see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.8N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.4N 98.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 16.9N 98.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Forecast Discussion Number 25

2018-06-15 22:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152035 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Bud has been without organized deep convection since around 0600 UTC, and is now a remnant low. An earlier ASCAT-B pass around 1640 UTC showed an area of 30-35 kt winds well east of the center off the coast between Altata and Topolobampo, but some of these winds could have been topographically enhanced. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this final advisory. The remnant low should gradually weaken and then dissipate shortly after landfall. ASCAT data and visible imagery suggest that the initial motion is a bit to the left of previous estimates, with the current estimate 355/09. The remnant low should continue moving northward through dissipation between a mid-level ridge to the east and an approaching longwave trough to the west. Although the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate on Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 25.9N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 16/0600Z 27.3N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 5

2018-06-15 22:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 152032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Satellite images indicate that Carlotta is slowly getting better organized, with lots of banding features. ASCAT data indicated peak winds of near 35 kt, close to the coast of Mexico, and this will be the initial wind speed, matching the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB. Radar data from Acapulco suggest that Carlotta hasn't moved a lot in the past few hours, and continues moving slowly to the northeast. The storm should get steered in that general direction through landfall early tomorrow due to the influences of a large trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. Little change was made to the official track forecast, except the landfall is about 6 hours sooner. Carlotta doesn't have much time left to intensify, but could strengthen a little more before the small cyclone quickly dissipates over Mexico. Although this system is expected to have only a low wind threat, there is a significant risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca due to moist southwesterly flow intersecting the southern Sierra Madre mountains. Please see products issued by your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 16.1N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 16.4N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 16.9N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2018-06-15 16:40:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 151440 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Radar data from Acapulco, plus satellite and microwave imagery, indicate that the depression has either reformed and/or is moving slowly toward the north-northeast. Overall, the satellite presentation has improved over the past several hours, with a large band of convection in the southeastern quadrant. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt for this advisory, and perhaps scatterometer data will give us a better look at the wind field this afternoon. Since the center has shifted to the north-northeast, the timing of landfall along the coast of Mexico has accelerated, with the bulk of the guidance now suggesting a Saturday landfall rather than Sunday. The official forecast now goes with the faster scenario, close to a cluster of the GFS ensemble mean and HMON models and the eastern Pacific track consensus aid TVCE. While the environmental conditions still appear to be conducive for strengthening, the depression has less time to intensify because of the faster landfall timing. Consequently, the intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, but is a little higher than the model consensus. Although this system is expected to have only a low wind threat, there is a significant risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca due to moist southwesterly flow intersecting the southern Sierra Madre mountains. Please see products issued by your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 15.8N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 16.1N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 16.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 16.8N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 17.2N 98.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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