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Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Discussion Number 6

2017-06-21 05:01:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210300 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and nearby ship D5DY4 indicate that Cindy has strengthened to 50 kt based on peak SFMR and flight-level winds of 51 kt and 62 kt, respectively, and the ship report of winds near 50 kt. The NHC greatly appreciates the observations reported by ships C6CE8, ABVZ5, D5DY4, V7MO2, and WHED, which have been navigating through and near the center of Cindy for the past several hours. The initial motion estimate is 310/06 kt based on recent reconnaissance fixes. A northwestward motion is expected for the next 24 hours, after which Cindy is expected to recurve northward and then northeastward around the western portion of the strong subtropical ridge located over the southeastern United States. The 18Z model guidance has shifted slightly to the east, and the new NHC track has been adjusted a little to the east as well, close to the consensus track model TVCA. Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast. Although Cindy has strengthened this evening, little change in strength is expected for the next 12 hours or so, followed by gradual weakening thereafter due to the combination of strong vertical wind shear and abundance of dry mid-level preventing the development of significant inner-core convection. The new NHC intensity follows the trend of the previous advisory and is a little above the intensity consensus model IVCN. The 34-kt wind radii were expanded in the northwest and northeast quadrants based on recon wind data, and observations from coastal and offshore buoy data. This has required and eastward extension of the Tropical Storm Warning along the north-central Gulf coast. The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 26.4N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 27.0N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 28.1N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 29.8N 93.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 31.4N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 34.7N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Discussion Number 5

2017-06-20 22:35:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 202034 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 The low-level circulation of Cindy is exposed well to the southwest of the main convective band that extends along most of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Data from the aircraft and marine observations indicate two areas of high winds. The first is located in the convection about 150 n mi northeast of the center, and the second is in a band about 60 n mi northwest of the center. Based on a blend of the aircraft and surface data, the initial intensity is set to 40 kt for this advisory. The central pressure of 999 mb is based on extrapolated data from the aircraft. Only limited strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours as strong shear continues over the system, with gradual weakening expected as the system approaches the coast and moves inland. The new NHC forecast is similar to much of the guidance and the intensity consensus. The circulation has been stationary as it has organized over the past 6 hours, but the model guidance suggests that a northwest motion should resume soon as Cindy interacts with an upper-level low situated to its northwest. This motion should continue through 24 hours, and then Cindy will recurve around the western edge of the subtropical ridge as it moves inland in 36 to 48 hours, and accelerates into the mid-latitude westerlies over the lower Mississippi Valley. The new NHC track has been adjusted a little to the left, following the latest trend in the guidance, and lies near or a little to the left of the latest multi-model consensus aids. Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast. The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 25.7N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 26.6N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 27.4N 92.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 28.9N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 30.8N 94.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 35.0N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Remnants of BRET Forecast Discussion Number 9

2017-06-20 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202032 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Bret Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 500 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Bret no longer has a closed circulation and has degenerated into a tropical wave. The wave is likely producing 30 to 35 knot sustained winds over water in squalls to the north of the area of minimum pressure. The wave is expected to continue moving westward across the Caribbean where strong southerly shear prevails, and regeneration of the system is not anticipated. Most of the models agree and dampen the wave in a day or two. This is the last advisory on Bret, and additional information on this system can be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center, and in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 12.0N 67.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 4

2017-06-20 16:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 201436 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation of the low has become better organized since yesterday, but still lacks a well-defined center. The central pressure appears to have fallen to around 999 mb based on observations from NOAA buoy 42001, and some deep convection has begun developing a little closer to the low's circulation center. For now the system is being maintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system could be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today. The current intensity is maintained at 35 kt based largely on continuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into the system later this morning. Only limited strengthening is forecast before the system moves inland due to the strong vertical shear over the cyclone caused by an upper-level low centered off the Texas coast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the intensity consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09 as the there are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a mean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a better-defined center forms. However, the system should be steered generally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so as it interacts with the aforementioned upper-level low and then turns more north-northwestward by 48 hours as the system begins to recurve around the mid-level ridge to the east. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows the system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by 48 hours. After that time, the system should recurve into the mid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern and central Appalachians on days 3 and 4 before dissipating. The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 25.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 21/0000Z 26.7N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/1200Z 27.4N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1200Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1200Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm BRET Forecast Discussion Number 7

2017-06-20 10:53:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200853 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017 Bret continues to have a fairly well-organized appearance on satellite imagery, but the presentation on radar from Trinidad and Venezuela is not so impressive, with a lack of well-defined banding features. The structure of the cyclone continues to be characterized by a northward tilt of the vortex with height, so the center is estimated to be located near the southern side of the CDO. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is the mean of Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB. The intensity forecast reasoning remains about the same as before. No significant short-term strengthening seems likely while the circulation interacts with Venezuela today. In 24 hours or so, a weakening trend should commence due to strong south-southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough over the Caribbean Sea. The global models continue to be in good agreement that the system will dissipate over the west-central Caribbean in 2-3 days. The official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the intensity model consensus, IVCN. The forward motion has slowed just a bit from yesterday and is now around 290/18 kt. There continues to be little change to the track forecast philosophy. The flow on the southern side of a well-defined mid-level subtropical ridge should steer the cyclone on a west-northwestward to westward track for the next couple of days. The official track forecast lies between the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions and is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 10.6N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 11.5N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 12.4N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 13.3N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 13.6N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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