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Post-Tropical Cyclone NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 57
2016-10-18 10:56:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180856 TCDAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 57 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2016 Nicole is finally losing its tropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with a frontal system over the cold waters of the North Atlantic. The circulation is becoming elongated with the remaining deep convection in a band well to the east of the center. The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on a combination of satellite intensity estimates and earlier scatterometer data. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to complete extratropical transition in the next 12 hours, the it should continue as a vigorous extratropical storm through 36 hours before it is absorbed by another extratropical low. The initial motion is 030/27. The cyclone should continue quickly north-northeastward on the east side on a deep layer trough over the Labrador Sea until the cyclone dissipates. The main hazard associated with the post-tropical cyclone will continue to be the large area of high seas. Swells from the system will affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next couple of days. This is the last advisory on Nicole issued by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 47.1N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 18/1800Z 51.7N 36.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 19/0600Z 57.0N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1800Z 62.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 56
2016-10-18 04:58:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180258 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016 The old adage about tropical cyclones transitioning to extratropical once the latitude is larger than the longitude does not apply to Nicole. The system has been able to maintain a coherent inner core of deep convection, which wraps about two-thirds the way around its center. This is, however, somewhat reduced from earlier today and the Dvorak data-t numbers from TAFB and SAB have dropped. A just arriving ASCAT-A scatterometer pass from 0019Z indicates that peak winds are about 60 kt and this may be a bit generous. Thus Nicole has weakened to a tropical storm. Nicole's resilience as a tropical cyclone is likely due to it being embedded within very low vertical shear and in quite cold upper tropospheric temperatures, despite the SSTs dropping to near 20 deg C. However, Nicole should soon transition to an extratropical cyclone, as frontal boundaries develop near the center of the system by tomorrow. Even though it will become extratropical, it is anticipated that Nicole will remain a large and powerful system for the next couple of days before being absorbed by a separate extratropical cyclone in about three days. The intensity forecast is slightly less than that from the previous advisory because of the lowered initial intensity and is based upon a deterministic global model consensus. Nicole is moving toward the northeast at about 22 kt, as it is being advected along in the deep layer southwesterly flow ahead of a shortwave trough over eastern Canada. A 2019Z AMSU pass and the ASCAT-A scatterometer pass indicated that the surface center is somewhat west of where the center appears to be from the infrared imagery. Nicole should accelerate and turn toward the north by tomorrow. This track forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory and is based upon a blend of the deterministic and ensemble global models. The main hazard associated with Nicole will continue to be the large area of high seas. Swells from Nicole will affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next couple of days. The post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 44.8N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 48.3N 37.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 19/0000Z 54.5N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1200Z 59.0N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0000Z 65.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 55
2016-10-17 22:48:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 172048 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016 Although Nicole is still a hurricane with a large ragged eye, it is is steadily losing its appearance as a tropical cyclone in satellite imagery. During the past six hours, the cloud pattern has become elongated northeast-to-southwest and convection has weakened considerably in the eyewall with only a small patch of cloud tops to -50 deg C remaining in the southeastern quadrant. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have been holding steady at T4.0/65 kt, which is the initial intensity used for this advisory. Nicole is currently located over 21 deg C SSTs and the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters of less than 18 deg C in 12 h, which should extinguish any remaining instability and convection. As a result, Nicole is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later tonight or Tuesday morning. The initial motion estimate is 040/22 kt. Nicole is getting picked up by an approaching strong mid-/upper-level shortwave trough. As the amplifying trough digs to the southwest of Nicole, the hurricane is forecast to continue to accelerate toward the northeast tonight, followed by north-northeastward turn on Tuesday, which will take the cyclone over the cold waters of the far North Atlantic during the next three days. Nicole is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low off of the east coast of Greenland by 72 h. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is in best agreement with the GFS-ECMWF model consensus. The main hazard associated with Nicole will continue to be the large area of high seas. Swells from Nicole will affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next couple of days. The post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 42.7N 42.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 45.4N 40.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 18/1800Z 51.0N 37.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0600Z 56.5N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z 61.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 54
2016-10-17 16:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 171433 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016 Nicole is still maintaining its status as a hurricane. The latest satellite images show a ragged eye feature with broken bands of deep convection around the eye and to the west of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain 4.0/65 kt, therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. Nicole will likely become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or early Tuesday when it moves over SSTs colder than 20 deg C and begins to interact with a frontal zone. Little change in intensity is expected even after post-tropical transition occurs, and Nicole is forecast to become an even larger cyclone over the north Atlantic during the next couple of days. The hurricane is moving slowly northeastward at 8 kt as it remains cut off from the stronger mid-latitude flow. A mid- to upper-level trough currently over Atlantic Canada is expected to move eastward, which should cause Nicole to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward during the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in best agreement with the various consensus aids. The main hazard associated with Nicole continues to be the large area of high seas. Swells from Nicole will continue to affect much of the north Atlantic basin during the next couple of days. The post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 41.4N 44.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 43.6N 42.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 48.2N 39.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0000Z 53.4N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1200Z 57.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 53
2016-10-17 10:38:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170837 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016 Nicole continues to exhibit a tropical appearance on satellite imagery, with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a large ragged eye. The current intensity is reduced to 65 kt based on recent scatterometer data, and this is also consistent with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Although not much weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, the cyclone is now expected to lose tropical characteristics in 24 hours since, by that time, it should be over SSTs colder than 20 deg C. Soon thereafter, the system is forecast to become attached to a nearby frontal zone and make the transition into a vigorous extratropical cyclone. By 96 hours, global models show the low being absorbed by another large extratropical cyclone near Greenland. Nicole continues to move northeastward at around 8 kt. The system has yet to get caught up in the stronger mid-latitude westerlies that lie just to the north. However, a shortwave trough moving through Atlantic Canada should cause Nicole to accelerate northeastward soon. As the trough amplifies, the cyclone is likely to continue to accelerate and turn north-northeastward to northward later in the forecast period. The 12-ft seas radii and predicted wind radii, as well as the position and intensity forecasts are mainly based on analyses and forecasts from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 41.0N 45.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 42.5N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 18/1800Z 51.5N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/0600Z 56.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0600Z 65.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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