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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 4

2017-06-25 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 252038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Dora continues to exhibit well-defined convective spiral bands, with a developing CDO. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 3.0 so the intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The tropical cyclone will be in a low-shear environment with anticyclonic upper-level flow for several days. These dynamical factors would favor intensification. Waters beneath Dora, however, will begin to cool soon and the system should encounter significantly cooler waters within 48 hours or so. Therefore the window of opportunity for strengthening is decreasing, especially since the cyclone is moving a little faster than before. The official intensity forecast is close to the ICON consensus and still shows Dora becoming a hurricane within 24 hours. The latest center fixes yield a faster motion of around 300/12 kt. A well-established subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should produce a continued west-northwestward motion for much of the forecast period. By days 4 and 5 a more westward track is likely due to the system weakening and becoming a shallow vortex. The official track forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one, close to, or a little south of, the latest model consensus. Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rains to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico during the day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.6N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 17.6N 106.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 18.5N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 19.8N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z 19.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 3

2017-06-25 16:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 251433 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Dora's cloud pattern continues to become better organized, with more distinct convective banding features developing. The current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in agreement with a Dvorak classification of T3.0 from TAFB. The dynamical environment should remain very favorable for additional intensification, with upper-level anticyclonic flow over the storm and low vertical shear for the next several days. Sea surface temperatures, however, should begin to decrease significantly in 48 hours or so, which will halt the strengthening trend. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus. It should be noted that Dora could strengthen more than indicated here in the short term, given that the SHIPS RII shows an above normal probability of rapid intensification during the next day or so. The initial motion estimate is 295/10 kt. A well-defined mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of Dora for the next several days. This should maintain a west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period, and the track model guidance is tightly clustered for the next 3-4 days. Late in the forecast period, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is likely to turn westward following the low-level steering flow. The official track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rains to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.0N 101.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 15.8N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.8N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.8N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.6N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.6N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 20.3N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 2

2017-06-25 10:38:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250838 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone has been intensifying. The overall coverage of the deep convection has been increasing with more banding features noted than late yesterday. Microwave and conventional satellite data also suggest that some primitive inner-core features have developed. Based on the increased central organization and a Dvorak classification of 2.5 from TAFB, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. There are no obvious environmental impediments to further strengthening during the next couple of days with low shear, high mid-level moisture, and warm SSTs in the forecast. Guidance is in good agreement on steady intensification, and Dora could become a hurricane in a day or two. Thereafter, Dora should move across much cooler SSTs and into a more dry and stable airmass, causing the cyclone to weaken and eventually become a remnant low by day 4. The latest NHC intensity forecast is adjusted a bit upward in agreement with the HWRF, SHIPS and NOAA corrected-consensus models. The initial motion is west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 kt. A large mid-level high centered over northwestern Mexico should continue to steer Dora on this general course during the next couple of days. The storm will likely take a westward turn by midweek once the cyclone weakens and becomes more steered by the lower-level winds. Model guidance remains in good agreement on this track, resulting in high confidence that Dora will move parallel to the coast of Mexico, keeping the tropical-storm-force winds offshore. Only cosmetic changes were made to the previous forecast, and the NHC track prediction remains close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 14.7N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 16.4N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 17.5N 106.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 18.4N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 19.5N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 20.3N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 20.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2017-06-25 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250232 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system south of Mexico has a well-defined circulation with convective banding features developing near the center. The convection appears to have enough organization to classify the system as a tropical cyclone, and the initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and T1.5 from SAB. The depression is located to the southwest of a closed mid-/ upper-level low located over the western Gulf of Mexico, and to the southeast of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over Arizona. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 300/9 kt, and this general motion should continue for the next three days as the depression is increasingly steered by the strong high pressure to its north. Some decrease in speed is likely by days 4 and 5 once the cyclone weakens and is steered by lower-level winds. The track models are showing relatively little cross-track spread, but there are some speed differences, with the ECMWF most notably being slower than the other guidance. The NHC official track forecast is relatively close to the multi-model consensus TVCN, and there is high confidence that the cyclone will move parallel to the coast of Mexico, keeping the tropical-storm-force winds well offshore. Water vapor imagery shows the depression's outflow expanding in nearly all directions, and deep-layer shear is forecast to be very low for the entire forecast period. Therefore, strengthening is expected for the next 48 hours before the cyclone reaches colder water. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows HCCA during the first 36 hours but then diverges from HCCA and indicates a peak intensity occurring at 48 hours, which is closer in timing to the peak intensities shown by SHIPS, the GFS, and the ECMWF models. Cold water should cause the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by day 4 or 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 14.3N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.1N 101.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 15.9N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 16.8N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 17.9N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 19.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression CINDY Forecast Discussion Number 12

2017-06-22 16:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 221435 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cindy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 The circulation of Cindy is already well inland and weakening. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, although some areas could still observe tropical-storm-force winds in gusts associated with heavy squalls. Additional weakening is forecast, and Cindy will degenerate into a remnant low tomorrow. Thereafter, the cyclone should become absorbed into a frontal zone over the eastern United States. Cindy is moving toward the north or 010 degrees at 11 knots. The cyclone should gradually turn toward the northeast and east-northeast as it becomes embedded within the prevailing mid-level westerly flow over the next couple of days. Although Cindy is a tropical depression, it will continue to produce heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast and the southeastern and eastern United States, along with the potential for life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 31.0N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 23/0000Z 32.8N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1200Z 35.0N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 37.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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