Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2017-07-12 10:54:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120854 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 The structure of the depression has changed little during the past few hours, with the low-level center still located on the eastern edge of a central cluster of deep convection. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt and T1.5/25 kt, while the objective ADT estimate is T2.0/30 kt. The initial intensity therefore remains 30 kt. Low- to mid-level high pressure is currently located north of the depression near the Baja California peninsula, and it is steering the cyclone westward at 270/10 kt. This ridging is expected to strengthen and build westward through the forecast period, imparting a continued westward or even south-of-due-west motion on the cyclone through day 5. In fact, with the exception of the UKMET, the other track models have shifted notably southward from the previous NHC forecast for the first 72 hours. The updated NHC track forecast has also been shifted southward, close to the TVCN multi-model consensus, but it is not as far south as the ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA models. Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising to see additional southward adjustments in future forecast packages. Various shear analyses place 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear over the depression, and that shear is likely to continue for another 24-36 hours. In the meantime, the depression is moving over very warm waters of 28-29 deg C, and the cyclone's forecast low latitude should keep it over warm water for the duration of the forecast period. The global models, particularly the GFS and ECMWF, seem to suggest that significant deepening won't occur for another 24-48 hours (possibly due to the ongoing shear). Gradual strengthening is therefore forecast initially, and the NHC forecast is close to a blend of the SHIPS and HCCA models for the first 48 hours. After 48 hours, many of the models show more significant intensification due to lower shear, and during that period the NHC forecast is close to HCCA and the ICON intensity consensus. This new forecast is a little higher than the previous one on days 3, 4, and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 12.1N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 12.1N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 12.1N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 12.0N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 11.9N 117.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 11.8N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 12.2N 127.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 12.7N 132.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 19

2017-07-12 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120839 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Eugene is producing minimal deep convection, with only a small patch of cloud tops colder than -50 deg C north of the center. An ASCAT pass at 0453 UTC indicated that the cyclone was still producing 35-40 kt winds at the time. Since Eugene is now over sea surface temperatures of 22-23 deg C and the circulation continues to spin down, the advisory intensity is set at 35 kt. Significant deep convection is unlikely to return given the cold ocean, and Eugene is therefore expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today. Maximum winds will also continue to decrease over the next few days, and the circulation should dissipate by day 4. Eugene is maintaining a northwestward motion of 320/8 kt, steered by low- to mid-level high pressure located over the Baja California peninsula. This ridging is expected to strengthen and shift westward over the next few days, which should cause the remnant circulation of Eugene to bend a little more to the west before dissipation. The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and not too different from the previous forecast. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to affect the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California during the next day or two, causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 22.9N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 23.8N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/0600Z 24.8N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1800Z 25.8N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 26.7N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z 28.0N 127.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2017-07-12 04:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120235 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Convection associated with the low pressure area located well south of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized this afternoon and evening, with recent microwave images showing a well-defined curved band wrapping around the western portion of the circulation. Based on the improvement in organization, the system is being classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, which is a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates of 25 and 35 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. The depression is currently in an environment of light northeasterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. Although the global models do not show significant deepening, the statistical guidance (SHIPS and LGEM) and regional hurricane models (HWRF and CTCX) predict steady strengthening, with the regional models making the system a major hurricane by the end of the forecast period. Given the low shear and warm waters ahead, the NHC forecast calls for steady intensification and lies close to HCCA consensus model. The depression is moving westward at about 10 kt. A large mid- to upper-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast to build westward over the next several days. This should keep the cyclone on a general westward heading throughout the five-day forecast period. The models are in good agreement on the steering pattern and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 12.2N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 12.2N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 12.2N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 12.3N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 12.4N 117.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 12.5N 127.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 12.5N 132.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Storm EUGENE Forecast Discussion Number 18

2017-07-12 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Although deep convection continues to dwindle overall, a narrow band of deep convection has continued to persist in the northern semicircle and near the center. As a result, Eugene is being maintained as a 40-kt sheared tropical cyclone for this advisory based on recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates of T2.7/39 kt and the robust low-level circulation seen in visible satellite imagery. The initial motion remains northwestward or 320/08 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the northeast of Eugene is expected to keep the weakening cyclone on a northwestward track throughout the forecast period, which will be accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed after 24 hours. The NHC track guidance has shifted to the west, thus the official forecast has also been shifted to the left of the previous advisory, similar to a blend of the consensus models TVCN and HCCA. Eugene will continue to weaken throughout the next 4 days as a result of the ingestion of drier and more stable air, and from moving over colder SSTs of near 20 deg C by 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous advisory, which has Eugene degenerating to a remnant low pressure system by 18-24 hours, and dissipating by 120 hours, if not sooner. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next couple of days, causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 22.3N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 23.1N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1200Z 25.3N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0000Z 26.2N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z 27.5N 126.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z 28.0N 128.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 17

2017-07-11 22:34:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 112034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 The deep convection associated with Eugene is rapidly waning. While the Dvorak assessments from ADT, SAB, and TAFB suggest a low-end tropical storm at this time, an AMSU pass back at 1417Z generated intensity estimates of around 60 kt from CIRA and CIMSS. However, it is unlikely that these maximum winds are valid because of the increased stability over the stratocumulus-blanketed waters. A blend of the Dvorak and AMSU estimates gives 45 kt for the initial intensity. The diminished deep convection and visible imagery allow for a more accurate determination of Eugene's initial position and motion, which is northwestward at 8 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to continue moving in the same direction and speed for the next couple of days, as it is rounding the southwestern portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is nearly unchanged and is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique. Eugene should continue its weakening due to ingestion of stable air as it moves over the cool waters west of Baja California. It is expected that the cyclone will lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in about a day - or sooner - and dissipate completely in four to five days. The official intensity forecast is the same as that previously and is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus technique. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next couple days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 21.7N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 22.5N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.6N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0600Z 24.7N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1800Z 25.8N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 27.6N 125.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z 28.5N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [760] [761] [762] [763] [764] [765] [766] [767] [768] [769] [770] [771] [772] [773] [774] [775] [776] [777] [778] [779] next »