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Tropical Storm CINDY Forecast Discussion Number 11

2017-06-22 10:52:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220852 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Radar imagery from Slidell and Lake Charles, Louisiana along with surface synoptic data, particularly those from Calcasieu Pass Louisiana, indicate that the center of Cindy crossed the coast between Cameron Louisiana and Port Arthur Texas an hour or two ago. The observations from Calcasieu indicate that the intensity is now around 35 kt. Now that the center is inland, steady weakening will occur and the system should become a depression later today, and be reduced to a post-tropical remnant low tonight. In 2-3 days, or sooner, the remnant low of Cindy should become absorbed into a frontal zone over the eastern United States. The initial motion is a little faster, and is about 360/10 kt. Cindy should continue to move through a break in the subtropical ridge today, and gradually turn toward the northeast and east-northeast as it encounters mid-level westerly flow over the next couple of days. The official track forecast lies between the GFS and ECMWF predictions. Although Cindy is weakening, it will continue to produce heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast and the southeastern and eastern United States, along with the potential for life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 29.9N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/1800Z 31.4N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0600Z 33.4N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 35.4N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 37.0N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Discussion Number 10

2017-06-22 04:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220245 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Cindy's overall convective pattern has changed little since the previous advisory and still resembles a subtropical cyclone. However, earlier this evening a convective band wrapped around into the southwestern quadrant and produced a sustained wind of 56 kt, a gust of 65 kt, and a pressure of 991.9 mb at elevated oil rig KHQI. Using an adjustment factor of 80 percent yields an equivalent surface wind of 45 kt, and that value is used for the advisory intensity. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will be investigating the cyclone shortly. The initial motion estimate is 340/06 kt. The latest model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes were made on the advisory cycle. Cindy should turn northward early Thursday morning as the cyclone moves through a break in the deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends from the Atlantic Ocean westward along the Gulf coast to Louisiana and Mississippi. Landfall is expected near the Louisiana-Texas border in 6-12 hours. After landfall occurs, Cindy is forecast to turn northward, and by 24-36 hours should accelerate northeastward across the Tennessee River Valley and merge with a frontal system by 72 h. Little change in strength is expected before Cindy makes landfall. Thereafter, gradual weakening should occur until the cyclone merges with a cold front over the eastern United States. The primary threat associated with Cindy will be heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, and also well inland. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 28.6N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 30.1N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0000Z 32.2N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1200Z 34.2N 90.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0000Z 36.1N 85.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Discussion Number 9

2017-06-21 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 212034 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Cindy continues to have the overall appearance of a subtropical cyclone this afternoon. However, the convective area just northwest of the center has become somewhat better organized based on coastal radar data, and the wind field has become smaller and more like a tropical cyclone. Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt, mainly in the northwestern quadrant. The initial motion is 315/8. There is again little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous advisory. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast, with landfall in southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana in less than 24 hours. After 24-36 hours Cindy, or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies over the eastern United States. Given the continued presence of dry air near the center, as shown by experimental GOES-16 data, and its generally negative effects on the central convection, little change in strength is expected before landfall. Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become absorbed by a frontal system over the eastern United States just after 72 h. While the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from intensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall threat. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 28.2N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 29.3N 93.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 31.3N 93.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 33.4N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1800Z 35.3N 88.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/1800Z 38.5N 76.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Discussion Number 8

2017-06-21 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211447 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Cindy has the overall appearance of a subtropical cyclone this morning with a convective cluster just northwest of the center and additional convection in a ragged band well removed from the center in the eastern semicircle. However, there is more convection near the center than earlier, so the system remains a tropical cyclone on this advisory. Regular water vapor imagery and experimental low-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show that a significant amount of dry air is present just east of the center, and this is likely disrupting the convective organization. Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the maximum winds have decreased a little and are now near 45 kt. The data also show that the 34-kt wind radii have decreased over the northeastern quadrant. The initial motion is now 310/9. There is little change in either the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the previous advisory. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast. Later in the forecast period Cindy, or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies over the eastern United States. Given the presence of the dry air near the center and its affects on the convection, little change in strength is expected before landfall. Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become absorbed in a frontal system over the eastern United States just after 72 h. While the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from intensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall threat. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 27.6N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 28.5N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 30.3N 93.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0000Z 32.3N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z 34.3N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/1200Z 37.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Discussion Number 7

2017-06-21 10:37:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210836 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Cindy does not look much like a tropical cyclone on satellite images this morning. The deep convection is well-removed to the north and northeast of an exposed low-level center, and there is a rather linear north-south band of convection several hundred miles east of the center. Water vapor imagery indicates that an upper-level low is located a couple of hundred miles to the northwest of Cindy's center, suggesting that the system has at least some subtropical characteristics. The current intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory, although surface observations and a recent ASCAT overpass suggest that this may be generous. Global model forecasts indicate significant shear, with some mid-level dry air wrapping around the circulation, over the next day or so. These factors, along with the current lack of convection near the center, should result in some weakening of the system prior to landfall, perhaps more so than indicated in the NHC forecast. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the cyclone soon, to confirm the intensity and wind field. The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 310/7 kt. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast. Later in the forecast period Cindy, or its remnant, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies over the eastern United States. The official track forecast is mainly a blend of the ECMWF and GFS and also leans toward the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus prediction. The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 27.3N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 28.0N 92.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 29.3N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 30.9N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/0600Z 33.2N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0600Z 36.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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