je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-10-24 04:40:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN OCT 23 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240240 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 900 PM MDT SUN OCT 23 2016 Seymour's convective pattern has continued to improve since the previous advisory, with the development of a mid-level eye feature noted in 23/2250Z and 24/0107Z SSMI/S microwave images. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt, respectively, and T3.6/57 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial intensity is set on the low side of these estimates at 45 kt for this advisory, which could be conservative. The initial motion estimate is 290/13 kt. For the next 72 h, the global models remain in excellent agreement on Seymour moving west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located over Mexico. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn northward around the western portion of the ridge and ahead of a shortwave trough forecast to approach Seymour from the northwest by late Wednesday. The official forecast track lies basically down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. The global and regional models indicate environmental conditions are forecast to be quite favorable for additional strengthening to occur during the next 3 days. In fact, due to a combination of the vertical shear being low at around 5 kt, mid-level humidity values being near 70 percent, sea-surface temperatures expected to be at least 29 deg C, and the recent development of a mid-level eye, a period of rapid intensification is forecast to occur for the next 24 hours. This trend is supported by the SHIPS and LGEM statistical intensity models, and also by the HWRF model and the new NOAA Corrected Consensus Model, HCCA, which makes Seymour a major hurricane by 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough and SSTs less than 25 deg C and are expected to induce rapid weakening. The new intensity forecast lies close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which is significantly higher than the previous advisory, but remains well below the peak intensity forecast of 110 kt by HCCA and the 112-kt forecast from the HWRF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.4N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.9N 109.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.6N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.1N 114.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 16.7N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 18.7N 120.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 22.0N 120.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-10-23 22:46:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232046 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 The cyclone has become better organized during the last several hours. Visible satellite images suggest that an inner core is forming, with a few curved bands surrounding this central convection. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 2.5/35 kt, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are slightly higher. In addition, an ASCAT pass around 1600 UTC showed maximum winds in the 30 to 35 kt range. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is increased to 35 kt. The global models are in agreement that Seymour should remain in a favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next few days. These light upper-level winds, combined with very warm water and high mid-level moisture values should allow Seymour to steadily, or perhaps rapidly, strengthen during the next 72 hours. Beyond that time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear, cooler waters, and a decrease in moisture should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level ridge over Mexico should continue to steer Seymour west-northwestward at a slightly slower pace during the next few days. After that time, the ridge is likely to erode as a deep- layer low pressure moves eastward toward California. This pattern change will likely cause Seymour to turn northwestward and then northward in 4 to 5 days. The models have shifted considerably to the right at the longer range points, and the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 13.9N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 14.5N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 15.2N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 20.8N 121.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 23.1N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-10-23 16:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231432 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 Although the depression is producing a considerable amount of deep convection, the cloud pattern is highly stretched from north-northeast to south-southwest. Microwave images from earlier this morning indicate that the low-level structure of the system is well organized despite the elongated appearance in geostationary satellite images. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. A band of strong upper-level south-southwesterly winds lies just to the north of the cyclone, and they could be contributing to its aforementioned appearance in satellite images. The global models are in agreement in showing the upper-level wind environment becoming more favorable for strengthening during the next few days. The expected low wind shear combined with warm water and high humidity values suggest that steady strengthening is likely during the next 72 hours. After that time, a notable increase in southwesterly shear and cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and cause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous one, but it is lower than the SHIPS and LGEM models. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. A continued west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days while the cyclone moves along the southwestern periphery of a high pressure system located over Mexico. By the end of the forecast period, a deep-layer low is forecast to erode the ridge and should cause the cyclone to slow down even more and turn northwestward. The NHC track forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN for the next 4 days, but lies to the left of that aid at 120 h in favor of the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 13.5N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 14.9N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 15.6N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 16.1N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 17.3N 117.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-10-23 10:46:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230846 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 Conventional and microwave satellite data indicate that deep convection associated with the low pressure area located south of Mexico has become much better organized overnight. A fortuitous 0526 UTC GPM microwave overpass revealed a significant increase in banding and was also very helpful in determining the center location. Based on these data, and an earlier partial ASCAT pass which indicated that the circulation had become sufficiently well defined, advisories are being initiated on the twentieth tropical depression of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB. The depression is forecast to move over SSTs of 29-30 degrees Celsius and remain in an area of vertical shear of around 10 kt or less during the next 2 to 3 days, which should allow for steady strengthening. Despite these seemingly favorable conditions, the global and regional hurricane models show much less strengthening than the statistical SHIPS/LGEM guidance which show a peak intensity of around 70-75 kt in about 3 days. Given the expected favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is above the dynamical guidance and model consensus, but is lower than the SHIPS and LGEM. Late in the forecast period, cooler SSTs and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to weaken the cyclone. Since the depression is still in the formative stage, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/14. A strong mid- to upper- level ridge that is forecast to shift westward over the Baja California peninsula should steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next several days. By day 4, the cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward when it approaches the western periphery of the ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement on this overall scenario, but there are some differences in the forward speed of the cyclone and exactly when the northwestward turn will materialize. The NHC forecast track is slightly faster than the model consensus and is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.1N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 13.8N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.7N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.4N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 17.0N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 18.8N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Science Cafés Serve Up Drinks And Discussion
2016-10-20 17:29:00| Chemical Processing
Tags: science
discussion
serve
drinks
Sites : [776] [777] [778] [779] [780] [781] [782] [783] [784] [785] [786] [787] [788] [789] [790] [791] [792] [793] [794] [795] next »