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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 16

2017-07-11 16:51:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 111451 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Deep convection associated with Eugene is diminishing in depth and areal coverage. Consequently, subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB as well as objective ADT values from CIMSS continue to drop. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt, though this is with a substantial amount of uncertainty. A 0949Z AMSR2 microwave image helped to locate the center of Eugene this morning. The system is moving toward the northwest at about 9 kt. Eugene is expected to continue moving in the same direction and speed for the next couple of days, as it is rounding the southwestern portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is nearly unchanged and continues to be based upon the multi-model consensus technique TVCN. Eugene has been weakening due to ingestion of cool and dry air as it moves into the stratocumulus-infested waters west of Baja California. This will continue due to the northwestward track over even cooler SSTs during the next two days. It is expected that Eugene will lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in 24-36 hr and dissipate completely in about 5 days. The official intensity forecast is slightly lower than that previously and is based upon the multi-model consensus technique IVCN. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next couple days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 21.3N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 22.3N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 23.4N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 24.6N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1200Z 25.7N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 27.6N 124.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z 28.8N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 15

2017-07-11 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110836 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 The areal coverage of cold cloud tops continues to decrease, and microwave images indicate that all the remaining deep convection is restricted to the northwestern quadrant. Based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak final-T and CI numbers, Eugene is estimated to have maximum winds of 55 kt. With sea surface temperatures decreasing below 22 deg C ahead of Eugene, the cyclone's winds and convection will continue to wane, and it will likely degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours. Based on the global models, the remnant low should dissipate by day 5. Eugene remains on a steady northwestward heading of 325/8 kt. Little change in this trajectory is expected during the next several days as Eugene moves toward a break in the subtropical ridge located off the northern Baja California coast. Some reduction in forward speed is likely by day 3 and 4 when the remnant low is steered by weaker low-level winds. The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and is not too different from the previous forecast. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 20.6N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 21.6N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 22.8N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 24.0N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 25.2N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 27.1N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 28.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 14

2017-07-11 04:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Eugene continues to weaken as it traverses SSTs below 26 deg C. The central deep convection is gradually becoming eroded, and the current intensity is estimated at 60 kt which is the mean of Dvorak CI numbers from SAB and TAFB. Although the storm continues to exhibit a fairly symmetrical upper-level outflow structure, it will be moving over increasingly cooler waters for the next few days. Continued weakening is likely, and the official intensity forecast is very close to the latest model consensus. Eugene should degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday morning. The motion remains near 325/9. There are no important changes to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level anticyclone to the northeast of Eugene should maintain a generally northwestward heading for the next few days, and until dissipation. A slight leftward bend is likely in a couple of days while the weakening cyclone becomes steered more by the low-level flow. The official forecast track is close to the latest corrected consensus prediction. Swells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.2N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 21.3N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 22.6N 120.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 23.8N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z 24.9N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 26.8N 124.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 28.0N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 13

2017-07-10 22:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 102034 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Eugene's convective presentation has continued to wane significantly during the past six hours. Cloud tops near the center have warmed to barely -65C and the overall cloud pattern has become elongated northwest-to-southeast. The initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. There are no significant changes to the previous track and intensity forecasts or reasonings. Eugene is expected to continue to move in a general northwestward direction throughout the forecast period, and steadily or rapidly weaken while moving over much colder waters characterized by 25C-22C SSTs. The track and intensity forecasts closely follow the TVCN and IVCN consensus models, respectively. Swells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to advisories issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.4N 117.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.6N 118.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 22.1N 119.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 23.4N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 12/1800Z 24.6N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1800Z 26.7N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 28.3N 124.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z 29.5N 127.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 12

2017-07-10 16:50:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101450 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 The convective structure of Eugene is losing organization and the ragged eye is no longer apparent in the shortwave infrared imagery. However, an 0952Z AMSR2 and 1311Z GMI microwave passes still indicated a well-defined eye in the 37 and 89 GHz frequencies. Moreover, these images suggest about a 20 nm S-N tilt between the near-surface center and the mid-level center apparent in the geostationary imagery. This is consistent with the 15 kt of southerly vertical shear diagnosed by CIMSS. The intensity is reduced to 75 kt, from a blend of the SAB and TAFB subjective Dvorak estimates and the objective ADT value. Eugene should move perpendicular across the large SST gradient during the next two days and reach 22C water on Wednesday. This along with the dry air that has been advecting toward the center of the hurricane should cause steady - if not rapid - weakening. It is anticipated that Eugene will lose deep convection in about two days and become a remnant low. The official intensity forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique and is slightly lower than the previous advisory. Eugene is moving toward the northwest at about 9 kt, primarily being steered by a large mid-level ridge to the northeast of the hurricane. As Eugene loses its deep convection in a couple days, it should be advected along in the low-level tradewinds until dissipation in about five or six days. The official track forecast is based upon the variable consensus method - TVCN - and is slightly north of the previous advisory. Swells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to advisories issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.7N 117.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 20.0N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 22.9N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 24.1N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z 26.4N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 27.9N 123.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 29.5N 125.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea

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