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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 14

2017-06-28 10:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280836 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017 Microwave images indicate that Dora stopped producing deep convection soon after 0000 UTC, and all cloud tops warmed above -50C by 0245 UTC. The circulation now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds, and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Deep convection is unlikely to return due to cold sea surface temperatures, and Dora is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later this morning or this afternoon. Dora has slowed down with an initial motion estimate of 285/9 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should maintain Dora on a similar west-northwestward trajectory for the next day or two. Based on the latest surface fields from the GFS and ECMWF models, the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 19.8N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 20.4N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/0600Z 21.2N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1800Z 21.6N 117.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 13

2017-06-28 04:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280236 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Convection associated with Dora has continued to decrease this evening and is now separated from the low-level center. A blend of the various objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 45 kt, which could be generous. The tropical cyclone is forecast to continue moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures which should caused continued weakening, and Dora is forecast to become a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours. Dora has turned more westward since the previous advisory, but the long-term motion is still west-northwestward or 285/11 kt. A west-northwestward to westward motion to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge should continue until dissipation occurs in two to three days. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory and lies between the multi-model consensus and the more southern ECMWF solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 19.7N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 20.1N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1200Z 21.5N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 21.7N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 12

2017-06-27 22:42:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 272042 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 The convection associated with Dora continues to decrease, with the center now exposed to the west of a small area of deep convection. Various satellite intensity estimates range from 54-77 kt, while a recent ASCAT overpass suggested winds of about 45 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, and it is possible that this is generous. Dora should continue to rapidly weaken as it moves over colder sea surface temperatures, and the system is expected to become a remnant low in 36 h or less. The official intensity forecast is again in close agreement with the model consensus ICON. The initial motion is 290/11. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should maintain the west-northwestward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, over the next 36-48 h. After that, a westward or south of westward motion is expected. The official forecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies to the south of the model consensus between 24-48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 19.6N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 20.1N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 20.6N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 21.2N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 21.7N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion Number 11

2017-06-27 16:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271433 TCDEP4 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Dora's satellite presentation continues to degrade. Although an eye is still evident, the coverage and depth of deep convection has been diminishing. The current intensity is set at 65 kt based on a blend of T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is currently traversing sub-26 deg C SSTs, and the waters beneath Dora will continue to cool for the next couple of days. The system should weaken to a tropical storm later today and degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours, or less. The official intensity forecast is in close agreement with the model consensus ICON. Center fixes yield a continued west-northwestward motion of 300/11 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should maintain the west-northwestward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, over the next day or two. In 48-72 hours, a more westward track of the weakening cyclone is anticipated. The official track forecast is a little north of the previous one, but south of the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.3N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 19.8N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 20.4N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 21.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion Number 10

2017-06-27 10:34:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270834 TCDEP4 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Over the past several hours, the satellite presentation of Dora has degraded with cooling eye temperatures and breaks in the eyewall convection noted in the northwestern quadrant. Dvorak estimates are dropping and support a wind speed of 70 kt for this advisory. Dora is moving into cooler waters and a drier airmass, which should cause steady weakening over the next couple of days. Model guidance has come into better agreement on Dora becoming a tropical storm later today and a tropical depression by Thursday. The NHC intensity prediction is on the low side of the guidance since ASCAT confirmed Dora is a rather small tropical cyclone, and these types of systems are known to disappear rather quickly in the cold eastern Pacific waters. It would not be surprising if Dora dissipated faster than shown below. Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt. A large deep-layer ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it moving on a west-northwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn generally westward in the low-level flow before opening up into a trough by day 4. Guidance has shifted slightly northward during this cycle, perhaps due to a deeper model representation of Dora at the current time. The new NHC track forecast reflects that trend and lies a bit north of the previous one, close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.8N 109.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 19.3N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.9N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 20.4N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 20.8N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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