je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-06-07 16:57:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071457 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 The tropical depression has substantial deep convection associated with it this morning, primarily located within in its eastern semicircle. A 12Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from TAFB and a 28 kt observation from ship OZWA2 earlier this morning are the basis for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt. It is unclear, however, whether a well-defined surface center still exists in association with the system. First-light visible satellite pictures and imagery from the Puerto Angel radar remain ambiguous as to the structure of its circulation. The initial motion is a very uncertain 60/6 with the tropical cyclone being steered primarily by the low to mid-level flow on the south side of a deep-layered trough over central Mexico. The tropical depression should slow its forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or just inland over southeastern Mexico. The official track forecast is near the TVCN ensemble mean and somewhat north from that of the previous advisory. The tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly vertical shear this morning. This as well as proximity to the high terrain of southern Mexico and advection of dry air into its circulation should likely prevent intensification into a tropical storm. All statistical and dynamical guidance show dissipation within about a day, regardless if it remains over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.3N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.7N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 16.0N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-06-07 10:59:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070859 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 Surface and aircraft data indicate that the center of Colin has moved off of the coast of Georgia into the Atlantic. Overall, the system does not look very tropical. However, a large area of deep convection has been persisting east and southeast of the center during the night. Aircraft data and ship reports suggest that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt, mainly to the southeast of the center. Colin has accelerated northeastward with the initial motion now 050/27. The cyclone is expected to move rapidly northeastward for the next 24-36 hours due as it is steered by a large deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. After that, the forward speed of the cyclone is likely to slow as it interacts with a couple of other extratropical lows over the north Atlantic. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track, with a northward nudge at 72-120 hours. Baroclinic influences are expected to cause some strengthening today even as Colin loses its tropical characteristics. The cyclone is expected to transition to a storm-force extratropical low in about 36 hours, with gradual weakening thereafter. The forecast intensities and wind radii have been modified based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on the post-tropical cyclone. The current warnings are expected to remain in effect until it becomes clear that the center of Colin will not get closer to the coast than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 31.6N 80.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 34.1N 75.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 37.8N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/1800Z 42.0N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0600Z 45.2N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z 50.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 54.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 56.0N 28.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-06-07 10:56:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070856 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 This morning's satellite presentation reveals a rather poorly organized, substantially tilted tropical cyclone with the associated shapeless deep convective mass displaced to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt and is supported by the TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates. Strong, persistent southerly shear should induce a weakening trend as the system approaches the coast. Most of the global models indicate that the system will become a remnant low and dissipate in 24 hours or so, and the NHC forecast reflects this scenario. With a disorganized cloud pattern, the initial position and motion are highly uncertain, and are based mainly on continuity. However, the low to mid-level weak southwesterly flow produced by a shortwave trough over southern Mexico should steer the vertically shallow cyclone generally northeastward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the forecast period. The official forecast is based on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global and ensemble guidance and is slightly to the right of the previous advisory. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southern Mexico, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.6N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.1N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 15.3N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-06-07 04:42:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070242 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 Satellite and microwave data indicate that the depression is not well organized. Although there is still a lot of strong convection, last-light visible images suggested that the low-level circulation was separating from the mid-level center. The initial wind speed will remain 30 kt in accordance with the CI numbers from TAFB/SAB. Increasing southerly shear should cause the depression to weaken tomorrow. All of the guidance show the cyclone losing some strength by late Tuesday, and the official forecasts follows their lead. The depression is moving northeastward at about 8 kt on the east side of a mid-level trough that extends southwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. While a vertically intact system would likely move onshore, more guidance tonight is suggesting that the low-level center will stay south of Mexico. This solution makes sense since the low and mid-level centers already appear to be separating. The official forecast is thus shifted southward, between the ECMWF and GFDL model, keeping the center over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southern Mexico, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 14.5N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 15.0N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 15.6N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 15.5N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-06-07 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070237 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016 Surface observations and shortwave infrared imagery suggest that the center of Colin is just offshore of the coastline in the Big Bend region of Florida, and the system should make landfall very soon. Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from the center of Colin, however, it is important to not focus on the time or location of landfall, or on the exact forecast track. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding have been affecting much of Florida and these conditions should spread northward and northeastward over the southeast United States. The intensity estimate remains at 45 kt, under the assumption that wind speeds near this value are still being experienced at some locations along the coast. Global models indicate that Colin will deepen when it moves over the Atlantic, probably due to baroclinic energetics. Although Colin is expected to lose tropical characteristics within 24 hours, the models do not show it fully embedded within a frontal zone, i.e. extratropical, until about 48 hours. The official forecast goes with this scenario. The initial motion estimate is 050/19. Colin should accelerate northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States for the next day or two. After that, the forward speed of the cyclone is likely to slow as it interacts with a couple of other extratropical lows over the north Atlantic. It should be noted that Colin will probably lose its status as a tropical cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on the post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 29.8N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 32.9N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 36.5N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/1200Z 41.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 09/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0000Z 49.0N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0000Z 54.0N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z 56.0N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [905] [906] [907] [908] [909] [910] [911] [912] [913] [914] [915] [916] [917] [918] [919] [920] [921] [922] [923] [924] next »