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Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 31

2016-06-04 10:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 040841 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 Deep convection had essentially vanished, but a new puff of thunderstorms redeveloped east of the center during the last few hours. The low-level circulation remains exposed west of the convective mass due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. An earlier ASCAT pass showed reliable 33-kt winds when the cyclone was devoid of convection. It is assumed that, with the new convective burst, tropical-storm-force winds still likely exist. Thus, the initial wind speed estimate is held at 35 kt. A further increase in shear and Bonnie's movement over 22 deg C water should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours. Global models show Bonnie opening up into a trough by 48 hours, with its remnants absorbed by a frontal zone over the central North Atlantic soon after that. The new NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the previous one and the latest statistical-dynamical guidance. The initial motion estimate is 090/10. Bonnie continues to be carried eastward along the southern edge of a nearly zonal flow over the western Atlantic. The track model guidance shows Bonnie moving just south of due east with additional acceleration prior to dissipation. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a bit southward and is slightly slower than the previous forecast, following the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 35.9N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 35.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 34.9N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 34.4N 58.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 30

2016-06-04 04:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI JUN 03 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 040233 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM AST FRI JUN 03 2016 After the burst of deep convection noted earlier today, thunderstorm activity associated with Bonnie has diminished considerably with the only remaining convection occurring over a small area in the southeast quadrant of the circulation. The maximum wind speed is kept at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB. Given the current lack of deep convection, this intensity estimate may be generous. Since the system will be traversing cool waters of near 22 deg C and vertical shear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt over the next 24-48 hours, Bonnie is predicted to gradually weaken and soon become a remnant low. Global models show the cyclone becoming absorbed by another low over the north Atlantic in 48 to 72 hours. The initial motion estimate is 090/10. Bonnie is moving along the northern side of a subtropical ridge and the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and this steering regime should continue for the next couple of days. The track model guidance is in general agreement on a continued eastward motion with some acceleration over the next 48 hours. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF output and similar to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 35.9N 69.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 35.7N 67.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 35.4N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 34.8N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 34.3N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 29

2016-06-03 22:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 032032 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 Somewhat unexpectedly, the convection associated with Bonnie has increased this afternoon to the point where the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB is now 35 kt. In addition, an ASCAT-B overpass near 1400 UTC showed several 35-kt vectors about 30 n mi southeast of the center. Based on these data, Bonnie is again designated as a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 35 kt. The initial motion is now 090/11. Bonnie should move generally eastward to east-southeastward between the subtropical ridge to the south and a developing baroclinic low to the northeast. The model guidance has shifted a little southward since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is nudged southward as well. The current intensification is likely to be short lived, as Bonnie will be moving over sea surface temperatures colder than 24C in about 12 hours. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for weakening through the forecast period, with Bonnie degenerating to a post-tropical low between 12 and 24 hours. The low should subsequently weaken to a trough between 48 and 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 35.9N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 35.9N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 35.6N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 35.1N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 34.6N 57.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 28

2016-06-03 16:35:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 031435 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 Convection associated with Bonnie has decreased this morning as the center moves over sea surface temperatures of less than 25C east of the Gulf Stream. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. While little change in the wind speed is forecast during the next 48 hours, Bonnie should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours or less due to the affects of the cold water and increasing vertical wind shear. The system is then expected to weaken to a trough by 72 hours. The initial motion is now 080/10. The cyclone should move generally eastward along the southern edge of the westerlies with some increase in forward speed until dissipation. The new forecast track lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 35.9N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 36.1N 69.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 36.0N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 35.6N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 35.2N 59.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 27

2016-06-03 10:56:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030856 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 Bonnie's cloud pattern has become slightly better organized, with a cluster of deep convection in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone expanding in coverage and gaining greater curvature. However, nighttime visible satellite imagery and Doppler radar data from Morehead City, North Carolina, still show Bonnie's low-level center exposed to the northeast of this convective mass. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are the same as those from 0000 UTC, and with the cloud pattern not fundamentally different since that time, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Bonnie is currently passing over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream that peak around 25.5 deg C, and the warmer water and a generally low-shear environment could allow the cyclone to re-attain tropical storm status today. By 24 hours, lower sea surface temperatures and a substantial increase in westerly shear should result in weakening, and Bonnie is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. The new NHC intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one and overall a little below the statistical-dynamical guidance. Bonnie has turned east-northeastward and begun to move a little faster, with an initial motion estimate of 075/07. Global models show Bonnie turning eastward soon and accelerating further as it rides along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies for the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the south of and faster than the previous one, following the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 35.8N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 36.0N 71.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 36.1N 68.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 36.0N 64.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 35.6N 60.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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