Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 6

2016-06-06 22:49:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062048 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 Colin does not look much like a tropical cyclone in satellite imagery this afternoon. The center remains well removed from the showers and thunderstorms, and the reconnaissance aircraft data has found the strongest winds about 200 n mi southeast of the center. The highest flight level winds measured by the aircraft have been 63 kt with SFMR surface winds of 40 kt. Since the plane did not fully sample the convective band, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt. The global models continue to significantly deepen the cyclone during the next 24 to 48 hours, which is likely due to the interaction of the system with a mid- to upper-level trough that is currently moving southeastward over the Midwest. The intensity forecast calls for an increase in wind speed during the next 24 to 36 hours, then gradual weakening as an extratropical cyclone after day 2. Colin's initial motion is north-northeastward, or 030/20 kt. The cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward as it moves along the coast of the southeastern United States later tonight and Tuesday. A continued rapid northeastward motion is expected as the cyclone moves over the North Atlantic within strong southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. The track guidance has changed little during first 24 to 36 h, but has shifted northwestward after that time. The NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly, and is closest to the 12z ECMWF. Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from the center of Colin, it is important to not focus on the exact forecast track, or on the time or location of landfall. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding are already affecting much of Florida and portions of the southeast United States. It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on the post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 28.8N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 31.7N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/1800Z 35.2N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/0600Z 39.4N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/1800Z 43.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1800Z 48.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z 53.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z 56.5N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2016-06-06 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062034 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 The compact area of low pressure near the coast of southern Mexico has developed a well-defined center of circulation and sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression, the first one of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity estimate of 30 kt is based on a pair of recent ASCAT passes and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is a sheared tropical cyclone with much of the associated deep convection located to the north of the low-level center. Since the wind shear is expected to remain high, no change in strength is predicted before the depression reaches the coast on Tuesday. The system is moving northeastward at about 6 kt on the east side of a broad trough that extends southwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. A continued northeastward motion at about the same forward speed is expected, bringing the center near the coast in about 24 hours. However, since the vortex is strongly tilted, the mid-level center of the system will likely move inland as early as tonight. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which has already begun over portions of southern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of high terrain. The Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a portion of southern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.2N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.1N 96.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 15.9N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 16.5N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 
 

Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 5

2016-06-06 16:57:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 061456 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 The satellite presentation of Colin does not resemble that of a classical tropical cyclone, with the thunderstorm activity and strong winds well to the east of the center. Satellite, buoy, and the earlier aircraft data indicate that the center, such as it is, is within a large area of light and variable winds. In fact, several small swirls are seen rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre. The initial wind speed is maintained at 45 kt, based on the overnight aircraft observations. The next reconnaissance aircraft will be in the system around 18z. The strong southwesterly shear and very poor organization of the system suggest that significant strengthening is not likely before Colin reaches the coast of Florida later today. The global models unanimously show some deepening when the cyclone moves near the coast of the southeastern United States, likely due to interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern United States. Colin is forecast to complete extratropical transition in about 48 hours. The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 010/14 kt. Colin is expected to accelerate northeastward later today. On Tuesday, Colin is expected to move northeastward at an even faster forward speed as it becomes embedded in strong southwesterly flow ahead of a large deep-layer trough over the northeastern United States. The NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly northward from the previous advisory to be closer to the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from the center of Colin, it is important to not focus on the exact forecast track, or on the time or location of landfall. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding will begin affecting portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon well in advance of the center's nearing the coast. It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this case, NHC would anticipate continuing advisories and warnings on the post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 27.0N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 32.8N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 36.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 40.2N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1200Z 45.5N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z 50.0N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z 55.0N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 4

2016-06-06 11:02:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060902 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 400 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 Colin remains poorly organized this morning. Surface observations and data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that at least two small-scale circulation centers are present, one near an intense burst of convection around 24.5N 85.5W and the other well to the west-northwest near 25.5N 89W. The low confidence initial position splits the difference between these two features. The Air Force aircraft reported 850-mb flight-level winds of 71 kt and estimated 60 kt surface winds on the SFMR instrument. However, these winds were measured in the aforementioned convection, and it is unclear how representative they are. There is sufficient data to justify increasing the initial intensity to 45 kt. The cyclone appears to be moving faster, with the initial motion now 015/12. The track forecast reasoning again has not changed from the previous advisory. Over the next day or so, Colin should move north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow between a deep-layer trough over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico and a ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic. After that time, the cyclone will become embedded in strong southwesterly flow associated with a large baroclinic low over the eastern United States. The track guidance has nudged northward since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track, which lies near the consensus models, is also nudged northward. The poor organization and the presence of moderate vertical wind shear suggest that significant strengthening is unlikely before Colin makes landfall in Florida in less than 24 hours. The global models forecast winds of near 50 kt as Colin moves over the Atlantic and begins extratropical transition, and the latter part of the intensity forecast is based on this guidance. The model guidance forecasts that extratropical transition should be complete by about 72 hours. It is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact forecast track of this system. Strong winds, heavy rains and coastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 25.2N 87.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 27.6N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 30.7N 81.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/1800Z 33.8N 76.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 08/0600Z 37.6N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 45.0N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0600Z 50.0N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0600Z 54.0N 29.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 3

2016-06-06 04:42:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060242 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 The cloud pattern of Colin remains not very well organized, and the low-level center is impossible to discern from infrared imagery. The imagery does show a mid-level center of rotation well to the east of where the low-level center was last found. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate the storm around 0600 UTC, and this should be very useful for locating the center. The current intensity is kept at 35 kt based on earlier aircraft observations and a Dvorak data T-number from TAFB. Strong southwesterly shear should limit significant intensification of Colin before it reaches Florida. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest model consensus. Initial motion is an uncertain 010/08. The track forecast reasoning has not changed from the previous advisory. Over the next day or two, Colin should move north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow between a mid-level over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico and a ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic. Later, the cyclone should move within the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic. The official track forecast is similar to that of the previous advisory and close to the latest GFS output. It is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact forecast track of this system. Strong winds, heavy rains and coastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 23.6N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 26.0N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 29.1N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 31.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 43.3N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0000Z 49.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z 54.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [906] [907] [908] [909] [910] [911] [912] [913] [914] [915] [916] [917] [918] [919] [920] [921] [922] [923] [924] [925] next »