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Tropical Storm BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 2

2016-07-03 10:59:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030858 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that a long curved band of convection now wraps at least half way around the low-level center. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have increased as result, with TAFB coming in at T2.5/35 kt and SAB at T3.0/45 kt. Therefore, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Blas. The initial motion estimate is 285/12, based heavily on microwave fix positions. Overall, there is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Blas is expected to move along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located over northern Mexico and the southern United States. This stable steering pattern should keep Blas moving in a general westward to west-northwestward direction for the next 120 hours. The NHC track forecast is slightly north of the previous forecast track, and closely follows the consensus track model TVCE. Environmental conditions appear favorable for steady strengthening during the next 72 hours as Blas moves over SSTs of 29-30C and encounters decreasing vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt. The new NHC intensity forecast shows Blas becoming a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane by Wednesday. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by 96 hours or so as the cyclone starts to move over 26C or cooler seas-surface temperatures, which should result in some cold upwelling or mixing beneath Blas. The official forecast is above the intensity consensus IVCN, and close to the previous intensity forecast and a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 11.7N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 12.6N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 13.1N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 13.6N 117.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 14.6N 122.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 15.8N 126.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 17.3N 130.1W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2016-07-03 04:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030237 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 900 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2016 The deep convection associated with the area of low pressure well southwest of Manzanillo has become much better organized during the past 6 to 12 hours, and this system is now classified as a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery shows a large convective canopy with multiple curved bands. The estimated center position is near the eastern edge of the deep convection and the initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. The environment appears conducive for at least steady strengthening during the next 3 days, as the cyclone will be moving over SSTs of 29-30C and in an environment of low to moderate shear and abundant moisture. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Sunday and becoming a hurricane on Monday. The system is expected to peak in intensity in 3 to 4 days near major hurricane strength before gradual weakening begins as the center moves over progressively cooler waters. The official forecast is above the intensity consensus and close to a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 given the recent formation of the system. The dominant steering mechanism through the forecast period will be the western periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States. This pattern should guide the cyclone on a general westward to west-northwestward motion during the next 5 days. Most of the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario with the exception of the GFDL model, which is well to the right. There is some along-track spread between the generally slower GFS model and the faster ECMWF and HWRF through much of the period. The across-track spread increases in 4-5 days with the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean showing more of a poleward turn as they erode the ridge more, while the ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble mean, and UKMET have a stronger ridge and more westward motion. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of these two camps through the forecast period and is of about average confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 11.1N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 11.3N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 11.8N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 12.4N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 12.9N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 13.8N 120.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 16.5N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm AGATHA Forecast Discussion Number 5

2016-07-03 04:33:35| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016

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Tropical Storm AGATHA Forecast Discussion Number 3

2016-07-02 16:48:02| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016

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Tropical Depression TWO-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2016-07-02 10:34:28| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016

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