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Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 2

2016-06-05 22:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 052053 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 The depression has changed little in organization since this morning. The center is exposed well to the west of a linear band of deep convection that extends from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico southward across western Cuba and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently sampling the convective band to see if there are stronger winds. Although environmental conditions are not very conducive for strengthening, the depression is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Florida late Monday. The NHC forecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF models that indicate modest deepening and bring the system to tropical storm strength tonight or Monday. The system is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone over the western Atlantic in 2 to 3 days. The depression is moving northward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. The depression is expected to move north-northeastward at a faster forward speed between a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Texas and a ridge over the western Atlantic. The track guidance remains in very good agreement through 48 hours. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward in deep-layer southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic. The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 23.3N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 25.1N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 28.0N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/1800Z 34.0N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 08/1800Z 41.9N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 48.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z 53.5N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression THREE Forecast Discussion Number 1

2016-06-05 17:01:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 051501 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a tropical cyclone. The associated convective activity is located in a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate south to southwesterly shear. NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25 to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis for the initial intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity this afternoon. The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening. Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Florida. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over the western Atlantic in about 3 days. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt. The depression is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement during first 36-48 hours. After moving over Florida, the cyclone should enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion over the north Atlantic. The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.9N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

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Post-Tropical Cyclone BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 34

2016-06-05 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 050232 TCDAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 Bonnie has lacked organized deep convection since early this morning and is basically only a swirl of low clouds. Thus, the cyclone no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone and has become a post-tropical remnant low. Maximum winds are set to 30 kt. These winds should gradually weaken while the circulation opens up into a trough over the next day or so. Model guidance is in good agreement on this system moving east-southeastward until the low decays into a trough late Sunday or early Monday. This is the last advisory on Bonnie. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 34.7N 63.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 05/1200Z 34.3N 61.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0000Z 33.6N 57.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 33

2016-06-04 22:30:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 042030 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 PM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 Bonnie has lacked significant deep convection for several hours, and the compact cyclone mainly consists of a swirl of low-level clouds. An ASCAT pass from earlier today showed winds near 30 kt in the southeast quadrant of the circulation, and the initial intensity is held at that value. Strong wind shear, dry air, and cold waters should prevent the return of significant thunderstorm activity, and Bonnie will likely degenerate into a remnant low tonight. Most of the models show the remnant low dissipating late Sunday or Monday. The depression has been moving east-southeastward, 110 degrees, at about 12 kt within the mid-latitude westerlies. A general eastward to east-southeastward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected until Bonnie dissipates. The official track forecast is nudged a little to the south of the previous one, to account for the more southerly initial position and motion, and lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 35.0N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 34.5N 62.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 34.0N 59.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 33.3N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 32

2016-06-04 16:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 041434 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 Bonnie appears to be weakening. The small burst of deep convection that occurred overnight has been shrinking, and the system is now devoid of significant thunderstorm activity. Based on the degraded structure of the system, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt, making Bonnie a tropical depression once again. The depression is over cold water and in a high wind shear environment. Since these environmental conditions are not expected to change, Bonnie is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The remnant low will likely open into a trough within the next couple of days. The small cyclone is moving eastward at about 12 kt in the mid-latitude westerlies. An eastward to east-southeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected until Bonnie dissipates. Little change was made to the previous track prediction, and the official forecast lies close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 35.6N 66.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 35.1N 64.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 34.6N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0000Z 34.1N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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