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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-06-08 10:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080834 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2016 Mexican surface and radar data, along with recent ASCAT overpasses, indicate that the center of the depression is now near the coast of Mexico in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The scatterometer data suggests that the maximum winds are at most 25 kt. The depression is expected to move inland later today and dissipate over southeastern Mexico in less than 24 hours. The initial motion is a northward drift or 360/2. A northward to north-northeastward drift should continue until dissipation. While the associated convection has been minimal for the past few hours, there is a continued heavy rainfall threat from this system. This rainfall will be enhanced by the moist southwest flow over the high terrain of southern Mexico and western Guatemala where flash floods and mud slides are anticipated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 16.1N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 16.4N 94.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-06-08 04:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080235 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 The low-level center of the depression is difficult to locate even on microwave imagery. Any convection left is weakening and is confined within a band well removed from the alleged center. The current position is highly uncertain and is based primarily on continuity and some hint of a circulation in the low clouds. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, and given the current shear, and the fact that the circulation is already interacting with the high terrain of Mexico, additional weakening is anticipated. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low in about 12 hours. The depression appears to be moving toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 3 kt. The steering flow should force the system on a slow northeastward track, bringing the depression gradually inland. Another alternative is for the mid-level center to move northeastward while a weak low-level swirl remains meandering near the coast. Despite the observed weakening of the depression, very heavy rain continues. This rainfall is enhanced by the moist southwest flow over the high terrain of southern Mexico and western Guatemala where flash floods and mud slides are anticipated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 15.9N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 16.3N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 16.5N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-06-07 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072032 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 Numerous very cold cloud tops from the tropical cyclone's deep convection are observed over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southeastern Mexico, just north of the suspected center. No in-situ observations of the system's peak winds have been available, so an 18Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from TAFB is the basis for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt. It again has been challenging to locate the center of the tropical depression. The visible satellite imagery was suggestive of a tight low-level center a couple of hours ago, before moving underneath the southern edge of the convective overcast. Also a 1610Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass in the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone was consistent with a closed surface circulation center being located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The initial motion is an uncertain 50/5 with the tropical cyclone being steered primarily by the low to mid-level flow on the south side of a deep-layered trough over central Mexico. The tropical depression should further slow its forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or just inland over southeastern Mexico. The official track forecast is near the TVCN ensemble mean and the previous advisory. The tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly vertical shear. This as well as proximity to the high terrain of southern Mexico and advection of dry air into its circulation is likely to prevent intensification into a tropical storm. All statistical and dynamical guidance show dissipation of the tropical cyclone within about a day, regardless of whether it remains over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 15.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 16.0N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-06-07 22:20:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 072020 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 500 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 Colin is now being analyzed as a fully extratropical cyclone with frontal features. The gusty winds and rainfall has cleared the coast of North Carolina; therefore this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The low's intensity remains 50 kt, which is in agreement with an earlier ASCAT pass that showed a large area of 40-45 kt winds well to the southeast of the center. The extratropical cyclone will likely deepen tonight due to baroclinic energetics, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday while the low moves over the North Atlantic. The forecast intensities and wind radii are based on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. The cyclone is racing northeastward at about 35 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. After that time, the low should decelerate as it moves moves around a couple of larger extratropical lows over the North Atlantic. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Colin. Future information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 36.5N 72.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 08/0600Z 39.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/1800Z 43.5N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0600Z 46.5N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1800Z 48.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1800Z 53.0N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1800Z...Absorbed $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-06-07 16:59:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071459 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 Satellite and surface observations indicate that Colin has become post-tropical. A pressure minimum has recently passed near NOAA buoy 41013, but the circulation has become so elongated and ill defined that the system can no longer be considered a tropical cyclone. However, strong winds are still occurring along the North Carolina Outer Banks, so advisories will continue on a post-tropical cyclone until these winds subside. The minimum pressure has fallen a few millibars and recent buoy observations have recorded tropical-storm-force winds near the western portion of the deep convection. Assuming stronger winds are occurring within the deep convection and given the fast translational speed of the system, the initial wind speed is increased to 50 kt. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will deepen due to baroclinic processes during the next day or so, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for some additional strengthening. After that time, the low is expected to gradually weaken over the North Atlantic. The forecast intensities and wind radii of the extratropical low are based on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. The post-tropical cyclone is moving northeastward at about 31 kt. This general motion with some additional increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone should slow as it moves around and is eventually absorbed by a larger low over the North Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 34.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/0000Z 36.9N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1200Z 41.0N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0000Z 45.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 48.0N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z 51.5N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z 53.5N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z...Absorbed $$ Forecaster Brown
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