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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-07-05 22:55:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052055 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 Blas has the classic appearance of a powerful hurricane in satellite imagery this afternoon, with a 20 n mi wide eye embedded in a symmetric central dense overcast which in turn is almost surrounded by outer convective bands. Satellite intensity estimates are 115 kt from SAB and 102 kt from TAFB, and a recent CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimate is 110 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 110 kt, making Blas the first major hurricane of the eastern Pacific season. Blas continues its westward movement with an initial motion of 275/14. For the next 72 hours or so, the hurricane should be steered generally westward to west-northwestward by a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Pacific. This portion of the new forecast track is an update of the previous track. After 72 hours, the forecast confidence decreases as the track guidance diverges. The GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM, and Canadian models turn Blas northwestward between the ridge and a large mid- to upper-level low centered to the northeast of the Hawaiian islands. In contrast to the other models, the ECMWF forecasts the low to move westward with mid-level ridging developing between it and Blas. Thus, it forecasts Blas to turn westward by 120 hours. The new forecast track is similar to the old track in showing a west-northwestward motion at 96 and 120 hours, with the track lying between the ECMWF and the other models. Blas should remain in a light-shear environment over warm water for the next 12-24 hours or so, and some additional strengthening is possible during this time. While the shear is expected to be light to moderate during the forecast period, the cyclone should move over decreasing sea surface temperatures after 24 hours which should cause a steady weakening. The new forecast intensity is similar to that of the previous advisory and calls for Blas to decay to a remnant low over cold water by 120 hours. However, if the ECMWF track verifies, the system would stay over warmer water and likely remain a tropical cyclone at 120 hours and beyond. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 14.3N 120.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.6N 122.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 15.1N 124.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 15.7N 126.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 20.0N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 21.1N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-07-05 16:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 051453 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 Blas has been intensifying rapidly this morning. Satellite imagery shows a ragged eye that has been warming and becoming better defined in the middle of a large-sized central dense overcast (CDO). A special Dvorak satellite classification from TAFB suggests that the cyclone is close to major hurricane status, so the initial intensity is boosted to 95 kt, and this could be conservative. Blas has been moving nearly due westward since the last advisory, with a longer-term initial motion estimate of 280/13. For about the next 72 hours, the track model output is in good agreement that Blas should be steered westward and then west-northwestward around the southern and western periphery of a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Pacific. After that time, there is a rather significant divergence in the track guidance. The bulk of the model solutions indicate a northwestward track when Blas interacts with a cut-off low well northwest of it and encounters weaker ridging. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean, however, predict a much more southerly track in response to a stronger subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast track is adjusted to the south of the previous one, owing mostly to the more westerly initial motion. The track forecast is closer to the ECMWF solution beyond day 3, based on the premise that Blas should weaken significantly and become a shallow cyclone during that time. Given that Blas is undergoing rapid intensification, the short-term forecast shows a significant increase in intensity within the next 12 to 24 hours and is above all of the numerical guidance. Later in the period the hurricane should be moving over cooler waters, so a gradual weakening trend is expected to commence in about 48 hours. If Blas follows a more southern route than anticipated, however, it could weaken more slowly than shown here. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.1N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.4N 121.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 14.8N 123.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.4N 125.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 17.4N 130.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 19.1N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 20.6N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-07-05 10:41:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050841 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016 Blas has continued to strengthen since the previous advisory. The CDO has improved and the overall convective cloud pattern has become more symmetrical. A ragged eye feature has been evident in infrared imagery and is now completely surrounded by cloud tops colder than -75C. Recent AMSU and ASCAT overpasses have helped to place the center a little to the northeast of the positions noted in conventional infrared imagery. The initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and NHC objective intensities ranging from T4.7-T5.0, and the continued improvement in the eye pattern depicted in conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Based primarily on microwave satellite fixes, Blas continues to move west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. The hurricane is forecast to move in a general west-northward direction throughout the forecast period due to a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge remaining nearly stationary to the north of Blas. The latest NHC global and regional model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this stable steering pattern, and the models are tightly packed around the previous advisory track. Therefore, only minor tweaks were made, and the new forecast track lies close to the consensus track model TVCE. Blas has been rapidly strengthening over the past 24 hours, and an additional 12 hours or so of significant strengthening is supported by an expanding upper-level outflow pattern, low vertical wind shear values decreasing to less than 5 kt by 12-24 hours, and a smaller radius of maximum winds of about 15 nmi noted in recent ASCAT data. Although vertical shear values are expected to remain low, by 36-48 hours Blas will be moving over SSTs near 26C and ocean heat content values near zero, which should result in cooling of the ocean beneath the hurricane and begin a slow weakening trend. By 72 hours and beyond, Blas will be moving over even cooler water and into a drier and more stable air mass, negative factors which should combine to induce more significant weakening. The official intensity forecast remains well above he consensus model IVCN and closely follows the GFS-based LGEM statistical-dynamical intensity model, which has thus far handled Blas' intensification trend the best. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 14.2N 118.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 14.5N 119.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 15.0N 122.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 15.4N 124.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 16.0N 126.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 17.2N 129.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 19.1N 133.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 20.7N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-07-05 04:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050234 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016 Blas is gradually gaining strength. A ragged eye has been occasionally evident in geostationary satellite images and the inner core of the hurricane appears a little better organized than it was earlier today. In fact, a recent SSMIS microwave overpass showed an eye feature within the symmetric CDO. The latest Dvorak classifications and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support raising the initial intensity to 75 kt. The hurricane is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening for another 36 hours as the wind shear is expected to be less than 10 kt with sufficiently warm water and a considerable amount of moisture. The official NHC intensity forecast remains at the upper end of the guidance during that time and calls for Blas to reach major hurricane status. In about two days, however, the system is forecast to move over sea surface temperatures of around 26 C and into a more stable air mass, which should end the strengthening phase and promote a steady weakening trend. Blas is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of the period when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures near 24 C. Blas continues to move west-northwestward at about 12 kt on the south side of a sprawling mid-level ridge over Mexico and the eastern Pacific Ocean. The models are in very good agreement in showing a continued west-northwestward motion during the next 3 to 4 days while the ridge remains the primary steering mechanism. There is some divergence in the model solutions by the end of the forecast period, with the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models showing a more northern track while the ECMWF and HWRF models have a track farther south. This spread is associated with differences in how much Blas interacts with a cut off low north of the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 14.0N 116.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 14.4N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 14.9N 121.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 15.3N 123.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.8N 125.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 17.1N 129.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 18.9N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 20.7N 135.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Post-Tropical Cyclone AGATHA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-07-05 04:33:17| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016
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